12 Month Outlook: Islamic State Central African Province

The Islamic State Central African Province (ISCAP) is on the back foot. However, the rebel groups fighting under its banner, the Jihadist Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) in the DRC and Uganda and Ahlu Sunnah wal-Jamaa (ASWJ) in Mozambique, remain volatile players. In Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, ASWJ affiliates have reduced in size since the arrival of the Southern African Development Community and Rwandan military. Meanwhile, the DRC’s newly re-elected President Felix Tshisekedi, whose government wants the UN peacekeeping mission MONUSCO to withdraw, favours enhancing military cooperation with DRC’s neighbours. 

Key Judgement 1: It is unlikely that ISCAP will return to its previous size in numbers and territory within Mozambique over the next 12 months due to counterterrorism efforts.

Key Judgement 2: ISCAP will likely increase violence against civilians in the DRC due to MONUSCO’s planned withdrawal and the government’s focus on the M23 rebel group.

Key Judgement 3: It is likely that ISCAP will target crucial economic sectors in Mozambique over the next 12 months.

Table of Contents

Related Content

The Congo Conflict: More Violence, Spillover Ahead?

Location:_ Central Africa

Islamic State in Iraq: A Situational Assessment

Location:_ MENA

Black Axe: A Threat Assessment

Location:_ West Africa

Jihadist Advance: Mali Security Threat Assessment 

Location:_ West Africa

Guerrillas in Colombia: The Resurgent Ghosts Of War

Location:_ Latin America

PMC World: Romanian Contractors Fighting In The Congo

Location:_ Central Africa

Stay in the loop

Get a free weekly email that makes reading intel articles and reports actually enjoyable.

Log in

Stay in the loop

Get a free weekly email that makes reading Intelligence Reports and Articles actually enjoyable.

Table of Contents

Contact

Contact

"*" indicates required fields

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.