The Islamic State Central African Province (ISCAP) is on the back foot. However, the rebel groups fighting under its banner, the Jihadist Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) in the DRC and Uganda and Ahlu Sunnah wal-Jamaa (ASWJ) in Mozambique, remain volatile players. In Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, ASWJ affiliates have reduced in size since the arrival of the Southern African Development Community and Rwandan military. Meanwhile, the DRC’s newly re-elected President Felix Tshisekedi, whose government wants the UN peacekeeping mission MONUSCO to withdraw, favours enhancing military cooperation with DRC’s neighbours. 

Key Judgement 1: It is unlikely that ISCAP will return to its previous size in numbers and territory within Mozambique over the next 12 months due to counterterrorism efforts.

Key Judgement 2: ISCAP will likely increase violence against civilians in the DRC due to MONUSCO’s planned withdrawal and the government’s focus on the M23 rebel group.

Key Judgement 3: It is likely that ISCAP will target crucial economic sectors in Mozambique over the next 12 months.