AFRICOM: With or Without

AFRICOM: Key Judgements

• It is almost certain that majority of Central Africa region is unstable. While Sao Tome and Principe remained peaceful within the last decade, others are either at the brink of a conflict or have active conflicts. 
• There is a realistic probability that Central Africa will become a centre for power contest between China, Russia and the US. Therefore, AFRICOM will likely seek to increase its presence and activity in the region.
• African countries will highly likely overlook interference in its internal affairs because of the help they receive from AFRICOM.

Measuring the Temperature

Central African Republic (CAR) is in a conflict situation. Finding a lasting peace has been difficult since 2012 when the crisis re-emerged. However, Russia is helping. Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) battle the Allied Democratic Force, the rise of an Islamic State (IS) in the northern part of the country, and other warlords.

Grey Dynamics Africa Intelligence Assessment shows that Cameroon is unstable. Although there is no full-blown conflict. Its southwest and northwest regions suffer repression because they rebel against perceived injustice. But the government tries to silence them through the threat or actual use of force. Chad faces Boko Haram and anti-government rebellions. In Apr 2020, the Chadian government launched a successful offensive tagged ‘Operation Wrath of Boma’ against Boko Haram. However, Chad still has to work with Nigeria, Niger, and Cameroon to maintain safety. Despite this victory against Boko Haram, Grey Dynamics Africa Intelligence Assessment show that it does not guarantee stability. Also, there are occasional clashes between the government and anti-government rebels over the resource mines. In Angola, unrest in Cabinda, its oil-rich region, is ongoing. However, it is like the case of Cameroon where anti-government rebels face government forces. But in this case, it is over the unbalanced distribution of oil wealth.

While São Tomé & Principe (STP) remains peaceful, Equatorial Guinea is fragile and Gabon is tense. Both of them experience no active conflict. Congo Republic (Brazzaville) is yet to experience any conflict since the end of the post-election in Nov 2018. 

AFRICOMS Business in Africa

United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) is the US military arrangement assigned to Africa. Congressman William Jefferson said: “African oil should be treated as a priority for U.S. national security post 9-11. I think that…post 9-11 it’s occurred to all of us that our traditional sources of oil are not as secure as we thought they were.” For the US, therefore, it is a matter of national security. US oil interest is the foundation of AFRICOM’s primary assignment. 

Oil, the war against terrorism, and security in the Gulf of Guinea place Central Africa at the center of US national security concerns in Africa compared to other African regions. Thereby becoming a primary business for AFRICOM.

Concerning oil, Angola, Congo republic Equatorial Guinea Gabon Chad, and Cameroon are oil-producing countries. Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Congo (Republic), and Gabon are on the list of the 1st ten largest oil-producing African countries. The figure below shows a comparison between oil produced in Central Africa and other African states (bbl/day). Central Africa leads the statistics in sub-Saharan Africa.

These countries are ill-equipped, ill-trained, and lack the required resources to address their problems. This is because of the long years of instability and governance deficit, among other factors. Such problems include

• Armed political, religious and ethnic conflicts
• Violent Extremism, Terrorism and insurgency
• Piracy and sabotage of off-shore oil production in the Gulf of Guinea
• Illegal fishing, and illegal trafficking (Maritime) – in the Gulf of Guinea
• Drug smuggling and movement of Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW)
• Dumpling of Hazardous wastes

AFRICOM’s partnership with Central African countries is to build their indigenous defense capacity to handle these issues independently, and ineffective collaboration with the US. African governments protested against AFRICOM. Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) was the first to issue a clear message against AFRICOM. It also urged sister regions to not agree to AFRICOM. Nigeria also kicked against it. However, the Central Africa region on the other hand was not vocal about AFRICOM during this period and relied on the continent’s leadership. Except for Angola, who expressed dissatisfaction through SADC as a member But US intensified diplomatic efforts and did not start with big military installations. This made way for a cautious acceptance. 

AFRICOM trains defense forces of Central African countries within and outside Africa. They also provide support in anti-terrorist/insurgency operations. 

Rivalry: Beyond Oil

Oil brought AFRICOM to Africa, but it is likely insufficient to keep AFRICOM in Africa. This is because rivals are lurking. Beyond oil, China and Russia’s interest in the Central Africa region are increasing, with active attempts to build economic and security relations. Both countries are competitors with the US in terms of economics and military. The US will likely treat it as a threat. Hence, it would make sure it reinforces the need to increase and maintain a firm presence in the region. For instance, Russia helps the Central African Republic in terms of financial and military aid. Also, China, through the Forum on China Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), is increasing its economic presence in the region. 

‘Pros’ and ‘Cons’ 

Hiding under the partnership, there is a realistic probability that the US will use AFRICOM to interfere in the internal affairs of Central African countries. Also, the mandate of AFRICOM is not to ensure lasting peace in the region. Rather, it is to promote and protect US national interest. Lasting peace in Africa or Central Africa would mean that Africa will no longer see the need for AFRICOM. This is likely a threat because AFRICOM’s exit will affect US’s oil interest influence in Africa. 

Despite the disadvantage, Central African leaders will highly likely prefer that AFRICOM stay. These countries cannot handle the conflict situation they face. They need better training and financial and non-financial support to deal with security challenges. In the case of violent extremism and movement of Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW), they also need assistance in terms of intelligence.

Conclusion

Central Africa is oil-rich but unstable. Securing oil is what brought AFRICOM. It was considered a matter of national security. Now that the US no longer prioritizes Africa, it is a realistic probability for AFRICOM to withdraw. However, Russia and China’s rivalry highly likely keep AFRICOM there. They use oil and security as an excuse to keep their forces in the region and continue to offer training to the defense of affected countries to maintain the relationship with governments. Increasing activities of the rivals will likely influence a more from AFRICOM in Central Africa within the next decade. AFRICOM is unlikely to clearly state Russia and China as the threat necessitating their stay. Rather, the US will maintain that oil and security is the reason for AFRICOM’s continuity.