Background

Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has made his intentions with the al-Shabaab terrorist group clear– he wants them eliminated by 2024. So far, his goal is off to a good start with the recent neutralisation of a senior leader, Maalim Ayman. With the help of US forces, the joint operation took down Ayman on December 17, 2023. However, Muhamud’s plan is ambitious, and Somalia continues to grapple with the aftermath of its Deyr rain season, which affected millions of people. 
Additionally, the tensions over the planned exit of African Union peacekeepers have brought fears that the conflict will worsen as al-Shabaab attacks persist. With the Deyr season coming to an end, al-Shabaab militants will be more capable of mobilising their forces and resuming their offensive towards Mogadishu.

Key Judgement 1.  It is likely that SNA counterterrorism efforts will be hampered by increased attacks from al-Shabaab over the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 2. It is likely that the elimination of Maalim Ayman will cause a leadership crisis for al-Shabaab over the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 3. In the next 12 months, it is very likely that al-Shabaab will continue to struggle against coordinated US airstrikes.