Key Judgements
I. We judge it as almost certain that two females were attacked in Mogadishu with a chemical powder. This is likely Al Shabab’s changing tactics
II. We judge that the attackers were probably from the Al Shabab terrorist group.
III. We judge it highly likely the chemical powder remains unidentified due to the lack of forensic laboratory equipment
We judge it almost certain that two females were attacked with a chemical powder. The attack happened around 11:00 hours in the Abdi-Aziz district of Mogadishu. The attackers were likely in two vehicles. The powder was likely thrown out of the car in a drive-by attack style. This attack is likely part of Al Shabab’s changing tactics witnessed over the recent months.
We judge that the attackers likely escaped by blending into the traffic since both cars are widely used in Mogadishu. Therefore, it is almost certain that the attackers preplanned their attack. The identity of the attackers has not yet been confirmed. However, after analyzing the tactics and vehicles used, the attackers were probably members of Al Shabab.Â
We judge it highly likely that the two victims were hospitalised after complaining about difficulties breathing and loss of sight. It is highly probable that the chemical has not been identified at the moment of writing since the Somali government cannot identify all substances.
So far, the authorities have not been able to identify or comprehend the attackers. The motives of the attackers also remain unknown. What we do know is that this new attack is very problematic for the authorities. Because the government does not possess the know-how or the resources to deal with chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) attacks, it is paramount that the international community examines this attack and, if necessary, provides support.
