Key Judgements
I. We judge it as almost certain that two females were attacked in Mogadishu with a chemical powder. This likely Al Shabab changing tactics
II. We judge that the attackers were probably from the Al Shabab terrorist group
III. We judge it highly likely the chemical powder remains unidentified due to the lack forensic laboratory equipment
We judge it almost certain that two females were attacked with a chemical powder. The attack happened around 11:00 hours in the Abdi-Aziz district of Mogadishu. The attackers were likely in two vehicles. The powder was likely thrown out of the car in a drive-by attack style. This attack is likely part of Al Shabab changing tactics witnessed over the recent months.
We judge it highly likely that the attackers escaped by blending in to the traffic, since both cars are widely used in Mogadishu. It is therefore almost certain that the attackers preplanned their attack. The identity of the attackers is not confirmed yet. However, after analysis of tactics and vehicles used it is probable that the attackers were members of Al Sahabab.
We judge it highly likely that the two victims were hospitalised, after complaining about difficulties breathing and loss of sight. It is highly likely that the chemical has not been identified at the moment of writing, since the Somali government lacks the capability to identify all chemicals.
So far the authorities were not able to identify or apprehend the attackers. The motives of the attackers also remains unknown. What we do know is that this new attack is very worrisome for the authorities. Because, the government does not posses the know-how or the resources to deal with chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) attacks. Therefore, it is paramount that the international community examines this attack and if necessary provide support.
