The border between Algeria and Tunisia has been home to smuggling since before the formation of the state of Algeria in 1962. Communities have moved goods across the border to alleviate the intense poverty suffered by many along the borderland [source]. Since 2011 and the uprisings that removed the leaders of Tunisia and Libya, violent extremists have found a home in the region and along the Algeria-Tunisia border, posing serious security risks.

Potential solutions to this issue rely on changes to a long-standing Algerian foreign policy position. Algeria has held firmly to their policy of non-intervention, allowing sovereignty and self-determination to guide states. Recent challenges have raised questions of whether this policy will change in the near future.

Key Judgment 1: It is highly likely that the smuggling of goods will account for most of the trade between Algeria and Tunisia in the next 12 months.

Key Judgment 2: Threats of violence and terrorism will likely grow along the border in the next 12 months.

Key Judgment 3: It is likely Algeria will adjust their non-intervention policy to address security and stability issues with Tunisia and along its border in the next 12 months.