Since 2017, Ambazonian separatists in Cameroon have been embroiled in armed conflict with the Cameroonian military. Cameroon is strictly organised and governed as a united and centralised state, mostly framed by French administrative law and bureaucratic principles. Anglophones in the North-West and South-West region bemoan the subordinate position of the Anglophone minority in the unitary state. The Ambazonian grievances include under-representation in national decision-making councils, the neglect of the region’s infrastructure, and the drain of its economic resources, especially oil. This report addresses the prospects for Ambazonian operations in the next 24 months and the humanitarian implications.

Key Judgement-1. Cameroon’s relationship with Russia will likely reduce its access to Western support to combat the ADF in the next 24 months.

Key Judgement-2. Unless Ambazonia presents a united front, the conflict is likely to devolve into violent amorphous factions and militias in the next 24 months.

Key Judgement-3. The ongoing crisis will highly likely cause a mass exodus of Cameroonian refugees in the next 24 months.