On 30 November 2023, the Ethiopian government forces launched a drone strike against rebels in the Amhara region, north of the capital Addis Ababa. The Amhara rebels, notably the Fano militia, have challenged the Ethiopian government’s authority in the aftermath of the Tigray conflict. The government’s attempt to integrate regional forces and arrest militia members has escalated conflict in the region. Ongoing clashes, government restrictions, and disruptions to essential medical and humanitarian services heighten instability and increase local support for the rebel cause.

Key Judgement-1: It is highly likely that Amhara militias will contest the Ethiopian government’s control of Amhara for the next 12 months.

Key Judgement-2: It is likely that ongoing clashes, government-imposed restrictions, and disruptions to essential services will help sustain the rebel forces.

Key Judgement-3: The Ethiopian government will likely lose more support in the Amhara region so long as it pursues an overly militarized policy against regional rebels.