On 17 and 18 January, Iran and Pakistan launched cross-border strikes in the Baloch region, escalating tensions in the ongoing insurgency in Balochistan. Since 2019 Baloch separatist groups, such as the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), have escalated their tactics, leading to deadly incidents and a harsh crackdown by Pakistani security forces. The conflict is fueled by resource mining, cross-border tensions with Iran, repressive state policies, and the consolidation of insurgent groups. Recent developments are seen in the Pakistan-Iran border as cross-border missile strikes have been taking place from both sides.
Key Judgement 1. Despite the tension, the Pakistani and Iranian governments likely will increase efforts to combat Baloch insurgent groups in the next 6 months.
Key Judgement 2. The Balochistan insurgency will likely escalate attacks to influence Pakistan’s upcoming elections.
Key Judgement 3. Human rights violations in the region will likely increase and grab international attention.