Much attention has been paid to the pocket of Ukrainian resistance forming around Bakhmut in recent months. Comparatively little attention has been paid to a similar scenario playing out around the city of Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces in the city are likewise in danger of becoming encircled if Russian forces successfully press on both flanks. The city has been largely decimated, yet roughly 1800 civilians remain in the city. Despite the difficult situation posed by the Russian flanking manoeuvres, Avdiivka is unlikely to succumb before Bakhmut. We are observing the very same tactical mistakes made by Russia during its disastrous offensive on Vuhledar and the battle around Bakhmut is sure to drain Russian personnel, materiel and attention for the time being.

Key Judgment-1: It is highly unlikely that Avdiivka will fall before Bakhmut is captured.

Key Judgment-2: There is a realistic probability that Ukrainian forces will successfully defend Avdiivka until the next counter-offensive can materialize.

Key Judgment-3: It is likely that the Ukrainian General Staff will commit additional ground forces to Avdiivka in the coming weeks.