Russian forces along the eastern front are pressing Ukrainian troops into a pocket around the decimated city of Avdiivka. Potentially threatening to trap thousands of Ukrainian troops. Ukrainian forces are retreating to more advantageous positions, while Russian forces are filling in that vacuum and pressing the advantage. We expect to see further pressure on Ukrainian lines as a result of Russian gains in the vicinity of Avdiivka. We further expect to see an alteration in Ukrainian defensive postures across the entire frontline. The battle for Avdiivka is at its terminal phase and the retreat from Avdiivka could be bloody.

Key Judgement 1. It is highly likely that Ukrainian forces successfully retreated from Avdiivka in the next 48 hours, giving Russian forces complete control over the city.

Key Judgement 2. It is likely that Russian forces in Luhansk and Donetsk will press their strategic advantage and launch offensive operations along the entire eastern front in the next 48 hours.

Key Judgement 3. It is unlikely that Russian forces will advance beyond the town limits of Avdiivka in the next 48 hours, allowing Ukrainian troops to establish defensive perimeters to the west of the city.