Border Security between Mexico and the US: A 6-month Forecast


    The security situation along the US-Mexico border has always been a topic of great interest and debate. Especially about unauthorised immigration. This situation is mainly due to the social and political-economic crises that several countries in the region are experiencing, such as Venezuela, El Salvador and Nicaragua, among others. In recent weeks, the issue has once again gained attention, given the derogation of Trump’s era policy Title 42. With this change, the Biden administration intends to revise the border policy, with Title 8 being tougher on illegal immigration. This has led to an increase in crossings before its adoption, and the reinforcement of the border in the last weeks (source).

    Key judgement 1. It is likely that in the next 6 months, after the repeal of Title 42, there will be an increase in illegal settlements on the border.

    Key judgement 2. The US and Mexican authorities will continue reinforcing the border with more troops and resources, making crossing the border more difficult and dangerous.

    Key judgement 3. The border situation is likely to gradually calm down in the next 6 months, especially in terms of illegal crossings, given the new asylum application procedures.

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    Javier Sutil Toledano
    Javier Sutil Toledano
    Javier is a Junior Intelligence Analyst specialising in South America, Central America and the Caribbean. He graduated in Philosophy, Politics and Economics, with a minor in Peace and Conflict Studies. Currently, he is finishing an International Master Degree in Security, Intelligence, and Strategic Studies.

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