Bulgaria is Europe’s sixth largest arms manufacturer (source) and since the beginning of Russia’s war in Ukraine, their prices have increased substantially. A recent Euractiv investigation found that Bulgaria had ‘indirectly’ supplied Ukraine with weapons for the last two years (source). The country sold weapons to Romania, Poland and NATO members who then supplied the weapons to Ukraine. Russian influence still exists in Bulgaria with 30% of the population viewing Russia as a strategic partner in March 2022 (source). Bulgaria’s decision regarding arms trade may result in retaliation from the Russian Federation.

Key Judgment 1: Bulgaria will likely continue supplying weapons to Ukraine over the next 12 months. This will result in a growth of the Bulgarian arms industry.

Key Judgment 2: Over the next 12 months, it is likely that the shipment of weapons to Ukraine will result in political instability in Bulgaria. This instability will manifest itself in tensions between political parties and the general population.

Key Judgment 3: It is probable that Bulgarian arms warehouses and production facilities will continue to be targeted in sabotage efforts. This is because of Russia’s goal to reduce arms supplies to Ukraine over the next 12 months.