Cameroon is fighting a civil war between the Francophone government and the English-speaking territories collectively known as the South Cameroons or Ambazonia, who feel underrepresented. Despite a brief truce during the COVID pandemic, fighting has resumed and even increased in intensity in 2022. There is increasing pressure on the government for peace talks due to the toll the insurgencies’ after-effects on the populace. The insurgents consider schools targets because of the role of language in education, leading to more pressure on the government to resume teaching through reaching a peace deal.
KJ-1: It is highly likely that the level of violence in contested regions in Cameroon will continue to increase as part of the Anglophone Crisis in the next 6 months.
- Since April 2022, the level of violence in the conflict has slowly been increasing. (Source)
- 25th of June 2022, 30 civilians were killed in a land dispute involving Anglophone separatists. (Source)
- A further 6 civilians were killed by insurgents when their bus was attacked on the 7th of September 2022. (Source)
- The original separatist movement fractured into various groups, all claiming to be the rightful opposition. (Source)
- This year has seen frequent abductions of priests and villagers for ransom by separatist groups. (Source)
- Inter-separatist fighting broke out as groups freed hostages held by other groups. (Source)
- On the 13th of September, the Anglophone separatists voted in their new president. (Source)
- In addition, Government forces are not well-disciplined, burning down civilian houses and stores in retaliation for casualties. (Source)
- On the 10th of October, the Cameroon Army allegedly murdered a man and his two sons in the Mbonge region. (Source)
- Human Rights Watch accused the security forces of neglecting their role in protecting civilians over the summer. (Source)
- Moreover, there are significant worries that Wagner Group is trying to gain employment in the government’s service. (Source)
KJ-2: It is likely that there will be an increase in internal and external pressure for the Government to hold talks with the rebels in the next 6 months.
- Cameroon spoke about the crisis at the UN general assembly and the UN criticised Cameroon for not attempting to hold talks with separatists. (Source)
- The local clergy are a major force in pushing for peace talks. (Source)
- Catholic Archbishops criticise the government of Cameroon for poor governance. (Source)
- There is pressure on French President, Emmanuel Macron, to act as a peacemaker in Cameroon. (Source)
- There are frequent peace marches carried out by civilian protestors to encourage peace talks. (Source)
- On the 17th of October 2022, protestors called for the release of abductees and peace. (Source)
- On the 13th of October 2022, civilians are calling for an end to fighting as doctors can’t reach monkeypox victims. (Source)
- Severe flooding on the Chad-Cameroon border resulted in a humanitarian crisis, further spreading the government’s resources. (Source)
KJ-3: It is likely that the Anglophone Crisis will continue to wreak havoc on the Cameroon education system in the next 6 months.
- The education system is considered a weapon in this conflict due to them teaching universally in French, which the separatists oppose. (Source)
- The separatists see schools as a way for the state to exert its power so target them. (Source)
- Teachers are kidnapped for promoting the resumption of school and attempting to homeschool children. (Source)
- Since the start of the conflict in 2016, 750,000 Cameroonian children have lost significant school time. (Source)
- The UN estimates two out of every three schools in the Anglophone regions are closed indefinitely. (Source)
- Furthermore, separatists enforce frequent lockdowns for schools. (Source)
Intelligence Cut Off Date: 19th of November 2022