Background
The Western Cape independence movement, referred to as CapeXit, is a fervent call for the secession of the Western Cape province of South Africa. Encompassing cities such as Cape Town, Stellenbosch, and significant agricultural sectors, the Western is a dynamic hub within South Africa.
Motivated by a complex interplay of political, economic, cultural, and social dissimilarities, the movement has gained traction over the years. Those involved in the movement point to concerns over corruption, governance inefficiencies, and mismanagement, providing strong reasons to separate.
The Western Cape is a tapestry of racial diversity, where no single group holds a numerical majority. Inhabitants, known as ‘Coloured,’ trace their ancestral roots to Africa, Europe, and Southeast Asia. The contemporary Cape Independence movement was sparked in 2007 with the Cape Party, stemming from a Facebook group. The movement gained traction during the Covid-19, as people became increasingly disheartened with the national government’s hesitance to implement reforms, despite having new leaders. [source]
Key Judgement 1. It is likely that the CapeXit movement will struggle to reach its goal of 1.6 million supporters in the next 24 months.
Key Judgement 2. In the next 24 months, there will likely be an increase in proposed bills within the Western Cape Provincial Legislature that aim to grant the province more political authority.
Key Judgement 3. The probability of the ANC securing control in the Western Cape following the 2024 South African general election is low. The party will struggle to hold its power over the next 24 months.
KJ-1. It is likely that the CapeXit movement will struggle to reach its goal of 1.6 million supporters in the next 24 months.
a. As of August 2023, there are 838,101 registered supporters for a referendum on Western Cape Independence. This is only 52% of the overall goal of 1.6 million. [source]
b. According to Grey Dynamics calculations, the annual growth rate of the residents registered for the Western Cape independence movement from 2021 to 2023 is approximately 2.38%. This indicates drastically low growth rates. [source] [source]
c. In July 2023, Western Cape Premier Alan Winde attacked the Cape Independence Party, stating it has done nothing for the people who voted for it. [source]
KJ-2. In the next 24 months, there will likely be an increase in proposed bills within the Western Cape Provincial Legislature that aim to grant the province more political authority.
a. In 2023, two bills were tabled that would give the province more political power.
b. The Freedom Front Plus submitted the ‘Western Cape Peoples Bill,’ which aimed to recognize ‘Western Captonians’ as a distinct people from the rest of South Africa. [source]
c. The Democratic Alliance’s ‘WC Provincial Powers’ bill, recently tabled in the provincial legislature, seeks to identify and remedy failures of the national government. The bill would empower the Western Cape to assert and expand its authority in policing, public transport, trade, and energy. [source]
KJ-3. The probability of the ANC securing control in the Western Cape following the 2024 South African general election is low. The party will struggle to hold its power over the next 24 months.
a. Support for the ANC is diminishing. Current polls indicate that 46% of South Africans endorse the party compared to the 70% it garnered in the early 2000s. [source]
b. On December 2nd 2022, SA President Ramaphosa was dissuaded from resigning on the basis of the potential damage to the already struggling ANC. Without him, the ANC’s support is expected to drop significantly from its 57% in 2019, potentially by around 10 percentage points in 2024. [source]
c. The 2024 elections hold significance for the US due to its interests, as South Africa’s pivotal role in African power dynamics poses a threat to regional political stability. The decline of the ANC complicates efforts to reestablish the partnership between South Africa and the US. [source]
d. With it being winter, South Africans are grappling with increasingly severe blackouts, known as ‘load-shedding,’ of up to 8-10 hours a day. This is having devastating impacts on the approval ratings of the ANC. [source]
Analytical Summary
We have high confidence in KJ-1 and KJ-2, and moderate confidence in KJ-3. Our analysis is primarily based on opinion pieces from security experts and local news reporting. For KJ-1, we are assuming that the WC independence movement is losing its initial traction with the 2024 general elections around the corner. However, should this assumption be proven false, we will likely see the Independence Party winning several seats in the WC province. Additionally, there will likely be a significant increase in tabled bills that would give the province more autonomy.
Intelligence Cut-off Date: 25 August 2023
