On 17 May, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping met in Beijing to celebrate a new era of cooperation. Putin’s visit comes as Russian forces are ravaging Kharkiv. Coupled with a military leadership reshuffle ahead of an expected summer offensive in Ukraine. Putin is relying on China to continue supporting his country’s wartime economy, including through oil purchases. Meanwhile, Xi is seeking a junior partner for China, whose economy faces de-risking by Europe and new tariffs from the US. However, Russian leadership does not appear to have lost a keen awareness of China’s long-term geopolitical ambitions. Nor the magnitude and permeability of Chinese intelligence. Although Russia continues to present a facade of serenity not to spoil the “no limits” of the Sino-Russian friendship.
While Russia has openly invaded Ukraine, it has inadvertently caused its own international isolation. A consequence of which coheres around Sino-Russia strategic partnership becoming increasingly asymmetrical. Thus, making Moscow more dependent on Beijing to continue its war against Ukraine.
Should Moscow’s dependency further turn into complacency with a loss of vigilance towards Chinese intelligence, it may face consequences in the long-term. With Beijing potentially gaining the upper-hand in Russia’s Far East and eastern neighbours.
Key Judgement 1. Despite a renewed commitment to military integration, Russian intelligence will likely maintain its ‘Chinese line’ and essential intelligence assets against China.
Key Judgement 2. While each is committed to strategic autonomy, it is likely that an intelligence liaison between Russia and China, especially in disinforming the common target, will gradually develop.
Key Judgement 3. China’s post-Cold War acquisitions from Russia will likely be a major determinant in the success of an intelligence-sharing liaison.
