China’s self-proclaimed status as a “near Arctic state” is backed by its growing activities in that region. China’s naval capabilities, cooperation with Russia and scientific advancements place China as a new arrival to the Arctic region. With much of Beijing’s focus remaining on the South China Sea, China’s coming strategy in 2024 will likely shape the next decade of Chinese engagement in the Arctic.

Key Judgement 1. It is highly likely that China will use grey zone tactics in confronting its Arctic competitors in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 2. It is likely that China will increase the scope of its naval operations in the far north and Arctic in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 3. It is likely that Chinese Polar Silk Road Initiatives will degrade Sino-Russian relations in the next 12 months.