Between the 27 and 28 February a coup was attempted in Chad. Violent and confusing, the current regime, headed by Mahamet Déby, blamed the Socialist Party Without Borders (PSF). As such, several people were killed outside the country’s National Agency for State Security (ANSE) including PSF leader Yaya Dillo. The day prior, Chad announced a Presidential election for 6 May. Last year, the regime enacted a constitutional referendum, largely backed by the military to which opposition groups have labelled as reinforcing the regime’s rule. Additionally, The timing and domestic implications of the coup will no doubt have a profound effect on the upcoming elections. Triggering a potential crackdown of the regime in consolidating power.
Key Judgement 1. It is a realistic possibility that the coup was orchestrated by the current regime in an effort to consolidate power in the upcoming elections or postpone them.
Key Judgement 2. It is likely Déby will seek to consolidate family members as well as senior military personnel of Zaghawa ethnicity in an effort to cling to power over the next 12 months.
Key Judgement 3. It is likely that political violence as well as civil discontent will increase over the next 12 months as the regime clamps down following the coup.
