Covert Private Military Operations in Venezuela

The presence of private military contractors (PMCs) in Venezuelan affairs has been a constant as of late. Both the opposition and the government have employed them for different and often contrasting ends. In 2019, the Venezuelan government flew in Russian mercenaries from the notorious Wagner Group to protect the regime from foreign and domestic elements (source). What’s more, according to the UK Minister of State, Russian mercenaries are suspected of having a continued presence around illegal gold mining sites in Venezuela (source). Roughly a year after the arrival of Wagner, American mercenaries attempted a coup alongside Venezuelan dissidents. The presence and actions of private military contractors in Venezuela provide us with insights on the situation that go deeper than the surface level geopolitical interests at play.

1. Wagner

According to two anonymous sources close to the Wagner Group, the group’s mercenaries first arrived in Venezuela directly previous to the 2018 presidential elections. The elections, of course, were a sham. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro stayed in power, projecting falsified results he had won in a landslide victory (source). Flight data from Flightradar24 (below) validates the sources’ claim that Russian elements arrived prior to the election; between 10-21 December 2018, three Russian air force planes landed in Venezuela. According to the same sources, more Wagner mercenaries arrived in 2019 amidst heavy unrest. In this case, the mercenaries arrived on commercial flights from Havana. (source)

A 2019 flight carrying Wagner private military mercenaries to Venezuela via Syria, Source: Flightradar24
A 2019 flight carrying Wagner private military mercenaries to Venezuela via Syria, Source: Flightradar24

In both cases, the Venezuelan Government tasked Wagner mercenaries with protecting officials at the highest levels of government. They did not hire Wagner to protect the president and his loyalists from violent civilians contributing to unrest, but to protect them from factions of their own security forces (Fuerza Armada Nacional Bolivariana, or FANB). Yevgeny Shabayev – a cossack paramilitary group leader and veteran rights campaigner in Russia with close ties to Wagner – admitted that at one point there were upwards of 400 Wagner mercenaries in Venezuela. He also confirmed that they were there to protect the president. In 2019, loyalist sections of FANB had to quell a mutiny within the security forces just a few kilometres from the presidential palace. (source)

1.1 Estimative Takeaways

The fact that Maduro and his associates hired foreign private military contractors to protect themselves and their interests indicates the precarious nature of his regime. Maduro very likely did not feel he could trust even the most elite, compartmentalised divisions of FANB. Two years later, Maduro’s grip on power has solidified; as war in Ukraine causes oil prices to skyrocket, the world has been obliged to look elsewhere than Russia for supply. Maduro also maintains control over the judiciary, legislative branch, and FANB top brass. Nevertheless, his reliance on PMCs shows the fragility of his regime. For now, Maduro maintains his grip on power through enriching those that support him (source). His regime is resilient, yet fragile; the moment key loyalists are presented with a larger incentive to dispose of him than to keep him in power, Maduro may be in trouble.

2. Silvercorp USA & (Blackwater?)

On 3 May 2020, a contingent of three private military mercenaries from Silvercorp USA, an American PMC, and roughly 60 Venezuelan dissidents attempted an incursion into Venezuela to dispose of the Maduro regime. It failed spectacularly. The regime apprehended 17 belligerents, including two Silvercorp mercenaries, and killed eight dissidents (source). Venezuelan forces repelled the attempt before the contingent even reached the shore of Macuto, Venezuela (source).

The three mercenaries Jordan Goudreau, Luke Denman, and Airan Berry were all ex-green berets (source). Goudreau was the brains behind the operation along with the ringleader of the dissidents, Clíver Alcalá. Both Berry and Denman were captured and Goudreau escaped, reportedly picked up by a US Coast Guard vessel off of Curacao. Goudreau was the brains behind the operation along with the ringleader of the dissidents, Clíver Alcalá. The participation of three ex-green berets inevitably raised questions about the possible involvement of the US government in the plot. Based on information provided by anonymous Venezuelan opposition figures and acquaintances interviewed by AP, we can draw conclusions on who was aware of or involved in the operation. (source)(source)

Silvercorp boat apprehended off the shore of Macuto, Venezuela

2.1 Trump Administration Involvement

The AP unveiled that in 2019, Goudreau met Keith Schiller, President Trump’s head of security, through connections he had made via Silvercorp. Eventually, Schiller brought Goudreau to meet Lester Toledo, a Venezuelan opposition official with close ties to Juan Guaidó, the leader of the opposition and presidential hopeful.

After continuing discussions about the plot, Schiller, thinking Goudreau to be incapable and perhaps delusional, ditched the plans. The possibility of the private military operation receiving US government funding evaporated. After losing tacit support from the Trump Administration, Alcalá met with Colombian intelligence to win their support. In doing so, he claimed Goudreau was a CIA operative, something the CIA directorate in Bogotá refuted. According to testimonies, Alcalá and Goudreau made the dissidents believe that they had the unwavering support of the US government. (source)

2.2 Estimative Takeaways

Until the point of Schiller’s exit, it is reasonable to assume the Trump administration was actively aware of, and perhaps playing an active role in the operation’s planning. In Denman’s confession video (source), which FANB likely forced, when asked who commanded the operation, he responded that Trump did, while simultaneously making an exaggerated eye movement. According to intelligence professionals, Denman was signalling that he was being forced into telling a lie. Denman’s eye movement signalled that Trump was not, himself, in direct command of the unit. However, given Schiller’s past direct involvement with the operation, it is highly likely the Trump Administration was fully aware of the plot, even after Schiller backed out. (source)

Denman’s confession video being broadcast on Venezuelan State TV – the headline reads “President Maduro demonstrates that Venezuelan far-right had support of the US and Colombia.”

2.3 CIA Involvement

According to Clíver Alcalá, the CIA, Department of the Treasury, and National Security Council were all aware of the plot (source). The US later arrested Alcalá on narco-terrorism charges (source). Vice News even claims there was a meeting between a CIA representative and Goudreau himself (source). Given the CIA attempted to put a stop to the operation, it is clear the organisation was privy.

The organisation took active steps to stop it after the falling out between Goudreau and Schiller. It is very likely the CIA understood that a failed coup attempt spearheaded by an American PMC in Venezuela would be bad for US global interests and image. The CIA urged Goudreau to put a stop to the mission on several occasions. On one occasion, Goudreau met with a US Ranger in Jamaica who attempted to convince him to put a stop to the mission on behalf of the CIA (source).

2.4 Estimative Takeaways

Although there is no evidence suggesting the CIA was ever directly involved in the plot, there is a realistic probability the organisation was involved before the operation was deemed unfeasible. The Trump Administration was unmistakably unorthodox. Even so, it is extremely rare that the executive branch involves itself in, or is aware of such operations without the backing of the CIA.

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