Crisis in Kosovo: 3 Month Outlook


    Tensions between Serbia and Kosovo are once again on the rise due to new regulations imposed by Kosovo. Over the next three months, it is unlikely that Serbia will take any action against Kosovo as it is reliant on Russia’s support. Additionally, it is unlikely that Kosovo’s documentation mandates will take effect and there is a real possibility that its application to the European Union will be expedited, both as a result of diplomatic pressure from Western nations.

    KJ-1. It is unlikely that Kosovo’s requirements imposed on Serbians will be fully implemented within the next 3 months.

    • A year prior, Kosovo tried to enforce the new requirements for citizens in the north to adopt Kosovar license plates. However, the Serb majority population in the region refused and responded with roadblocks and protests. (Source)
    • Due to mounting regional pressures, such as the war in Ukraine, Western diplomats are trying to put out fires before they start. The Kosovar government is under pressure from their Western allies to not instigate a conflict with Serbia. The extension was due in large part to Western officials’ intervention. (Source)
    • The new license plate and documentation requirements for Serbians coming into Kosovo are primarily a political move rather than for security. Serbia has had the same requirements for citizens of Kosovo wanting to travel to Serbia for years. (Source)

    Trucks blocking car from passing.
    Roadblock set up by Serbians. (Source)

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    Jordan Smith
    Jordan Smith
    Jordan is currently working on his undergraduate degree at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service. He is majoring in International Politics with a concentration in Security Studies and a minor in Russian language.

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