Cross Border Incursions into Belgorod Oblast: A 6-Month Outlook

On 12 March, rebel forces aligned against Vladimir Putin’s government launched a military incursion into Belgorod Oblast. This is the third such incursion in two years. Residents of Russian border villages fled in the face of violent clashes between paramilitary groups and Russian National Guard units. Both Ukraine and Russia claim some degree of victory or strategic advantage from these raids. These competing narratives create a grey zone of information. We will analyse the actual achievements of these raids, their potential impact on other restless Russian regions, and the probability of more cross-border attacks in the near future.

Key Judgement 1. It is likely that cross-border incursions into Belgorod Oblast prompt Russia to divert manpower and assets away from the east in order to protect its southern flank in the next 6 months.

Key Judgement 2. It is likely that cross border incursions into Belgorod will embolden other resistance groups within Russian republics in the next 6 months.

Key Judgement 3. It is highly likely that Ukraine will continue to sponsor cross-border incursions by Russian resistance groups in the next 6 months.

Rest of this post is for paying members only

Already have an account?  Log in

Free Plan
Free
Secret Plan
$14.99
/ month
Recommended
Top Secret Plan
$39.99
/ month
Free Plan
Free
Secret Plan
$14.99
/ month
Recommended
Top Secret Plan
$39.99
/ month
Table of Contents

Related Content

Takeo Yoshikawa: The Spy Behind Pearl Harbor

TYPE:_ Article

The Failed Assassination Affecting US-India Relations

The 18 (UKSF) Signal Regiment

TYPE:_ Article
Location:_ Europe

Volt Typhoon: Taking US Infrastructure by Storm

Location:_ North America

Cuerpo de Infantería de Marina: The Mexican Marines

TYPE:_ Article
Location:_ Latin America

Russian PMCs in Africa: A Situational Assessment

Stay in the loop

Get a free weekly email that makes reading intel articles and reports actually enjoyable.

Log in

Stay in the loop

Get a free weekly email that makes reading Intelligence Reports and Articles actually enjoyable.

Table of Contents

Contact

Contact

"*" indicates required fields

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.