North African state and non-state actors are using drones more than ever. In Libya, drones were particularly prevalent in the conflict, but actors across the region are destabilising the region with cheaper and more available drone platforms. Some drone manufacturers like Iran and Turkey use drone sales to North African states to advance their foreign policy agendas. Trends in the usage of drones in North Africa will have long-term implications for conflict in the region.

Key Judgment 1: The growing use of drones in North Africa will likely destabilise North African geopolitics in the next 24 months.

Key Judgment 2: Terror organisations in North Africa will highly likely increase their use of drones in the next 24 months.

Key Judgment 3: Iran and Turkey will likely increase drone sales in North Africa in the next 24 months.