Cuba-US Relations: A 24-month Forecast 

The relations between Cuba and the United States are complex and have been strained for more than a century. They are traditionally marked by periods of hostility and tension, as well as brief periods of cooperation and engagement. Overall, the tension between Cuba and the US is rooted in a complex mix of historical, ideological, and political factors. In the last years, the Biden administration has expressed a desire for engagement with Cuba. However, there are no significant changes in the US policy towards the country.

Key judgement 1. It is highly likely that over the next 24 months, the relationship between Cuba and the US will remain tense as the US is unlikely to lift the economic embargo and sanctions against Cuba.

Key judgement 2. It is likely that in the next 24 months, the Biden Administration will continue to reverse and soften inherited policies against Cuba from the Trump era.

Key judgement 3. It is probable that in the next 24 months, Russia will attempt to deepen its ties and increase cooperation with Cuba as a way to pressure the US, given the growing tension between the two countries.

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