grey dynamics

North Korean Small Arms Proliferation and Identification

April 10, 2020

Louis Tayler

  This report seeks to offer an assessment of North Korean small arms proliferation and identification, with a focus on Africa.   Key Judgements   North Korea can export its large stockpile of historic small arms, which are indistinguishable from North Korean small arms exported before the UN embargo. North Korean involvement in small arms proliferation extends beyond export, to small arms industrial capability building, and training. North Korean military exports or services specialise in Cold War-era Russian equipment. North…

The Mahari Desert Patrol: An Anachronistic Throwback or Practical Unit?

April 3, 2020

Louis Tayler

  Le Groupement Territorial Saharien   Deep in the South of Tunisia, the “Groupement Territiral Saharien” (GTS), a part of the Tunisian Army, protects the border areas and remote deserts of Tunisia from all who may do Tunisia harm. This includes terrorists, smugglers, those crossing borders illegally, and more. The areas of Tunisia covered by the GTS stretch around hundreds of kilometres of borders with Algeria and Libya.   They also guard thousands of square kilometres in the deep and…

Turkey’s Military Influence: Neo-Ottoman Expansion into the Near East and North Africa?

March 13, 2020

Louis Tayler

      Key Judgements:   Turkish desire for autarky in the defence sector has led to a huge increase in domestic capability building but is far from self-sufficiency. Regardless, copying foreign developments is the natural precursor to more complete self-sufficiency.   Turkey is now able and willing to support actors like the GNA in Libya with domestically produced hardware.   In the longer term, Turkey is developing militarily self-reliance and can pursue a more aggressive independent foreign policy as…

The Forgotten Rogue Nuclear Power of Africa

February 18, 2020

Louis Tayler

      It is easy to think first of Iran or North Korea as aspiring and actual rogue nuclear nations respectively when asked about this subject. To others still, Israel and its purported nuclear deterrent may occur first. However, there was (until relatively recently) another rogue nuclear power, this one on the African continent. This, of course, was South Africa.     The South African nuclear programme began soon after the Second World War in 1948, with the establishment…

Iranian Arms Trafficking in the Indian Ocean

February 13, 2020

Louis Tayler

               Key Judgements   KJ-1. Clear indicators of successful Iranian arms smuggling to Somalia or Yemen include Iranian-made RPG systems and North Korean-made Type 73 GPMGs.   KJ-2. Dhow-based arms smuggling is a large-scale operation, which has likely already tangibly impacted the course of the war in Yemen.   KJ-3. Arms are likely destined for the war in Yemen via Somalia, a highly useful vector for arms traveling through the continent.       Analysis  …

British Military Playing Catch-up on ‘Sub-Threshold Conflict’

February 12, 2020

Insider Expert

      Key Judgements   The British Army and Government are attempting to catch up to Russia and Hybrid Warfare Tactics, but a significant gap still exists.   While this gap is being closed, Russia is operating with an advantage and has gained a strategic edge.     As a previous Grey Dynamics Intelligence Article has noted, Hybrid Warfare, or “Sub-Threshold Conflict”, is not a new feature to Russian strategy when it comes to the West. As far back…