grey dynamics

Turkish Drones Circling Somalia as Election Violence Looms

January 19, 2021

Eren Ersozoglu

      Key Judgements   KJ-1. Turkish drones are being deployed in Gedo, Somalia. The region has reached a critical stage in tensions between the Turkish-backed Federal Government of Somalia (FSG), and the Kenyan-backed Jubbaland state’s Kismayo officials.   KJ-2. Turkish trained GorGor special forces and special police unit Harama’ad mobilised in the Kenya-Somalia border region of Gedo. These developments come amid a delayed presidential election in Somalia, simultaneous with a deterioration of Kenya-Somalia relations.   KJ-3. Kenya Defense…

Chinese “Ironman” shows up in the Himalayas

January 18, 2021

Michael Ellmer

  Picture this. You are an Indian soldier standing guard at 14,000 feet above sea level in the heavily disputed Galwan River Valley of the Himalaya mountain range. All of a sudden, the normal tension and eerie silence shifts to pandemonium. A series of roaring jet-esque noises echo through the valley as a platoon of Chinese soldiers donned in mechanized suits conduct aerial maneuvers above you, releasing torrents of laser fire and destruction.   When the phrase “tactical exoskeleton” is…

Predictive Analysis of West Saharan Conflict

January 11, 2021

Michael Ellmer

  Key Judgements     KJ-1. It is likely military operations will remain along the southern border, with Morocco in a defensive position and the SPLA offensive. There has not been an intense uptick in violence since the conflict’s November resurgence, and reported kinetic incidents have been mainly directed at Moroccan defensive positions from SPLA troops.     KJ-2. It is likely that a failure in a joint diplomatic resolution to the conflict will increase military operations along the border…

Big Safari: Private US Contractor Kill Chains in African Operations and Beyond

January 8, 2021

Eren Ersozoglu

  Key Judgements   Founded in 1952, Big Safari is a specialised and secretive USAF acquisition programme, referred to as a ‘rapid procurement force’ Operationally, the secretive Big Safari facilitates private contractors and systems into the US chain of command The January 5th, 2020 Manda Bay attack in Kenya by Al-Shabaab led to the death of three Americans, of which two were private military contractors Manda bay is used as a key launchpad for USAF surveillance and airstrikes in neighbouring…

GPS Spoofing: Pioneered in Russia

November 30, 2020

Jeremy Walker

  Key Judgements   KJ–1. Russia is almost certainly at the forefront of developing large-scale GNSS spoofing capabilities. Over 9,000 spoofing incidents were recording within Russian waters between 2016 and 2018.   KJ–2. Incidents surrounding the Kerch Strait is almost certainly one of the most concerning areas in which spoofing has been deployed. Misdirecting shipping through Ukraine’s only access to oceans in the East has the potential to increase tension in the area further.   KJ–3. Individuals and small groups can make spoofing…

Death From Above: Drone Swarms & Loitering Munitions

November 17, 2020

Jeremy Walker

  Key Judgements   KJ–1. China has showcased ‘suicide drones’ (Loitering Munitions) in recent video releases. There have also been notable uses of loitering munitions in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia.   KJ–2. Indigenisation of defence manufacturing will likely increase the universal adoption of swarm technology.   KJ–3. Smart swarm technology is likely still decades away from adoption. However, we will likely see ‘dumb’ swarms being shown and used within the decade.     So what?   A recent video released…