grey dynamics

The Semmelweis Reflex
: When Ideas Control Governments

April 16, 2021

Iñigo Camilleri De Castanedo

The Semmelweis Reflex is the rejection of assessments which contradict pre-existing beliefs. The bias, applied to political and military decisions, can be referred to as ideological stubbornness.     Semmelweis Reflex & Cognitive Biases   The popularity of how psychology affects politics, conflicts and ‘geopolitics’ rises as information plays a bigger role within society. Cognitive biases, the ‘pitfalls’ and natural behaviour of our brain, play a big role in our polarised society as well as in the past. Nevertheless, biases…

Tradecraft: Structured Analytic Techniques

April 15, 2021

Maria Garcia Ribera

  Structured analytic techniques question intuitive judgements by identifying a wider range of options for analysts to consider. There is no formula to get it always right, but the use of such techniques can reduce the frequency of error by analysts.   These techniques can help analysts check cognitive limitations, avoid some of the known biases and confront the problems associated with unquestioned models. Structured analytic techniques can help individual analysts to work more efficiently, especially at the start of…

Tradecraft: Steganography and Covert Communications

April 14, 2021

Michael Ellmer

      Steganography is a tradecraft method used to conceal messages in plain sight. This article surveys the concept from its historical beginnings, differences from cryptography, methodology, and a case study highlighting its use by the Al Qaeda organization.       Historical Context   Steganography is not an avant-garde tradecraft practice. Within the confines of its contemporary forms, steganographic concealing has advanced in tandem with the technological advancements of the cyber era.     As the tale goes,…

Lady Death: Lyudmila Pavlichenko, History’s Most Deadly Female Sniper

April 13, 2021

Rachele Momi

  “I am proud to wear the uniform of the legendary Red Army. It has been sacrificed by the blood of my comrades, who have fallen in combat with the Fascist. It bears the Order of Lenin, an award for military distinction. I wish you could experience a bombing raid. Honestly, you would immediately forget about the cut of your outfit.” These are the words of Lyudmila Pavlichenko during one of the many interviews questioning her outfit during her tour…

Task Force Takuba: Special Forces in the Sahel

April 12, 2021

Maria Garcia Ribera

  What is Task Force Takuba   Named after the Takuba sword used across the Sahel, Task Force Takuba was established at the request of the Niger and Malian governments because of the deteriorating security situation in the Sahel region. Task Force Takuba was launched on the 27th of March 2020. Initially, eleven European States together with Mali and Niger, adopted the political statement creating this force.   Unlike United Nations and European missions in the Sahel, Task Force Takuba is…

Giorgio Marincola: The Black Partisan

April 6, 2021

Rachele Momi

    “I feel the homeland as a culture and a feeling of liberty, not as any colour on the map. The homeland is not identifiable with dictatorships close to the fascist ones. Homeland means freedom and justice for the people of the world. This is why I fight the oppressors.”   These are the words declared by Giorgio Marincola, the Black Partisan, at “Radio Baita” in Villa Schneider (Biella) in the first months of 1945. He was forced by the…