On 20 December, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) held its general elections. DRC’s elections will ostensibly be a flash-point for instability. Although we expect that the incumbent, Félix Tshisekedi, will secure re-election by a narrow margin. With less than half of approx. 100 million inhabitants eligible to elect their president, national and regional lawmakers, and municipal councils, DRC’s socio-political malaise will boil over well into 2024.

Key Judgement 1. The credibility of the DRC elections will remain in doubt, making a post-election dispute likely in early 2024.

Key Judgement 2. Bureaucratic inefficiency, corruption, and evolving policy needs to due insecurity in the East will likely impede efforts to improve governance in 2024.

Key Judgement 3. Security crises in the east will likely disenfranchise large swathes of the population during the DRC elections, inevitably creating a popular backlash.