Egypt-Turkey Rapprochement: A 12-Month Forecast

The longest-running conflict between Egypt and Turkey in the twenty-first century came to an end on February 14, when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan paid a visit to Cairo. After two years of negotiation to restore diplomatic ties, the Muslim Brotherhood’s activities in Turkey were limited and antagonistic campaigns ceased as a result of the increased level of Egypt-Turkey Rapprochement. Closer ties in the next 12 months will have implications for their defence industries, the dispute between Somalia and Ethiopia, Mediterranean security overall, and particularly for Egypt-Turkey military cooperation.

Key Judgement 1. It’s likely that Turkish and Egyptian Industrial cooperation will result in a qualitative leap in their military industrialization in the next 12 months. 

Key Judgement 2. It is likely that Cairo will cooperate with Ankara to support the Somali government against Ethiopia in the next 12 months. 

Key Judgement 3. It is likely that Turkey’s restoration of ties with Egypt and rapprochement efforts with Greece will reduce tensions in the Mediterranean in the next 12 months.

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