On 25 February 2024, Senegal will hold its presidential elections. On 17 November 2023, Senegal’s Supreme Court barred opposition leader –Ousmane Sonko’s– bid to run for president. Since June, Sonko’s detention and extrajudicial treatment have led to some of the country’s ‘deadliest clashes’ with the police in decades [source].

Reports of Senegalese authorities curtailing human rights, committing arbitrary detentions, banning protests, and restricting civic spaces ahead of the election [source] bear testament to the socio-political apparatus in turmoil.

Key Judgement 1. The judicial targeting of the opposition PASTEF party will likely favour the ruling party candidate.

Key Judgement 2. President Macky Sall’s decision to abstain from running for a third presidential term will likely bolster Senegal’s democratic credentials.

Key Judgement 3. Casamance rebels will likely increase political volatility along the Gambia-Senegal border if the “Alliance for the Republic” candidate wins the majority in 2024.