In September, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger announced a new defence pact titled ‘The Alliance of Sahel States’. It commits each country to come to the other’s aid in defence of their territorial integrity both from internal and external aggression [source].

This Alliance is perceived as a constitutive effect of a protracted and largely unsuccessful French military presence in the Sahel. The analysis thus proffered here is that France will re-exert its influence towards the coastal West African states.

Key Judgement 1: It is highly unlikely that France will regain favour with Sahelian states.

Key Judgement 2: Southward expansion of jihadist violence will likely encourage the coastal West African states to further their bilateral relations with France.

Key Judgement 3: The economic importance of the West African coast will likely be a major determinant of US and French interventionism.