G9 is one of the most powerful gangs in Haiti founded in 2020. G9 leader is Jimmy Chérizier, also known as “Barbecue”, a former police officer back in 2017. Following criminal charges, Chérizier founded the G9 in Port-au-Prince to allegedly maintain social order in the capital’s neighbourhoods. In addition, the relationship between the G9 and President Moïse helped the proliferation of the criminal federation. Indeed, president Moïse and the Haitian Tét Kale Party (PHTK) sponsored Chérizier through financial, material, and logistical support. Therefore, the assassination of President Moïse will constitute a drawback for their economic and political interests in the next six months.
Key Judgement 1
it is probable that G9 will maintain its position of power without the help of PHTK in the next 6 months.
- The assassination of President Moïse represents both a drawback and an opportunity for G9. On the one hand, PHTK’s lack of support will threaten the stability of G9. Indeed, the lack of financial and material resources offered by PHTK will disadvantage the criminal activities of G9.
- On the other hand, Chérizier is likely to obtain official political recognition by July 2022. The political instability of the Haitian government can offer opportunities for G9 territorial expansion and political engagement.
- Gangs already control 60% of Haitian areas. Therefore, they will likely control most of the territory by the end of Spring 2022.
- In addition, the alliance with other Haitian gangs is likely to reinforce the criminal control and the power of Chérizier. The G9 an Fanmi (G9 and Family) is the new agglomerate of the most relevant gangs in Haiti, dominating most of Haiti’s west side.
Key Judgement 2
G9 and gangs violence will likely endanger the wellbeing of Port-au-Prince residents in the next 6 months.
- The lack of governance in Haiti leads to gangs’ competition for territorial control. Only in June 2021, a dispute between G9 and the rival gang of Ti Bwa in the district of Martissant endangered the lives of hundreds of residents.
- In addition, the battle for supremacy between G9 and 400 Mawozo (gang connected to the kidnapping of twelve US missionaries) is likely to transform Port-au-Prince into a warzone.
- Unsurprisingly, 1.5 million residents were affected by gang violence (i.e., kidnappings and extortion), increasing the already existing humanitarian crisis. As a result of violence and political insecurity, Haitian people will lose support from humanitarian agencies in the next six months.
Key Judgement 3
The UN Security Council is unlikely to intervene in G9 controlled areas in the next six months.
- The UN Security Council remains sceptical about giving support to Haiti due to the current instability. Indeed, it is risky for the UN to be involved in the campaign against gang leadership as Haitian police and military forces are incapable of supporting the UN.
- The UN will encourage new Presidential elections in February 2022, alongside other recommendations, to provide long-term stability and economic recovery in the next six months.