grey dynamics

No End in Sight: The Climate of Fear Continues in Burundi

June 27, 2019

Dylan Ramshaw

    Since April 2015, Burundi has been embroiled in political and social upheaval after President Pierre Nkurunziza unconstitutionally ran for a third-term. In response to that decision, mass protests erupted and any critics or opponents to the ruling party, the National Council for the Defense of Democracy – Forces for the Defense of Democracy (CNDD-FDD), have been targeted by the Burundian authorities. The subsequent election in July 2015 won by Nkurunziza was boycotted by the opposition.   Violent repression…

South Sudan: An Absence of War, A Small Prospect of Peace

June 26, 2019

Fredrik Hellem

    Violence broke out between the South Sudanese President Salva Kiir’s party—the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the former Vice President of South Sudan Riek Machar’s the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-In Opposition (SPLM-IO) in 2013. The violence ignited a civil war which has displaced a third of the population and led to atrocities committed against civilians, including ethnic cleansing, sexual violence, and the conscription of children. In June 2018, a permanent ceasefire agreement was signed, the Khartoum Declaration,…

Colombia’s Struggle with Peace
: The Emergence of New ‘False Positives’

June 21, 2019

Dylan Ramshaw

  At least 220,000 lives were lost and over 7 million people were displaced in Colombia’s civil conflict. Colombia’s peace agreement in 2016 held much promise for reconciliation. However, crime, armed non-state groups, and a repressive reaction by the state security forces are again on the rise. President Iván Duque, who assumed the office last August, campaigned against the peace deal thinking it was too lenient on the rebels. He replaced the country’s top army leadership in December who represented…

Nicaragua: Increasing Isolation or a Turning Point for Daniel Ortega?

June 18, 2019

Dylan Ramshaw

    It has been 14 tumultuous and violent months in Nicaragua. In April 2018, protests spread like wildfire across the country following an attempt to reform social security by reducing pension benefits. The uprising began in Managua and León but quickly spread to as many as 10 other cities across the country. Though the proposal was later dropped, it triggered further protests and calls for President Daniel Ortega to step down, both over his crackdown and over general dissatisfaction…

Tug-of-War in Africa
: The Muslim Brotherhood and the Egyptian-Saudi-UAE Bloc

June 17, 2019

Fredrik Hellem

    This series of articles will explore the competition over influence between the Egypt-Saudi-UAE bloc on one side and the Turkey-Qatar bloc on the other, with an analysis on the role of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) in that competition. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE all pursue greater influence in Africa and in order to do so it must create allies and weaken competition. The bloc is share a common enemy, namely the Muslim Brotherhood (AR: الإخوان المسلمون al-Ikhwān…

The Unpredictable Future of Sudan

June 14, 2019

Fredrik Hellem

  The ‘journey’ of the Sudanese revolution began 19 December 2018. Poor and declining economic conditions led people to take to the streets to demand the resignation of then-president Omar al-Bashir. After months of mounting pressure al-Bashir was removed from his position 11 April 2019 by the armed forces. At that moment, the armed forces joined the revolution and proved to be decisive in its first stage, the removal of al-Bashir. Stage two of the revolution is the implementation of…