grey dynamics

Depleting Trust: Threatened Communities and the Future of MONUSCO

January 21, 2020

Jesutimilehin Akamo

     Key Judgements   KJ-1. It is almost certain that the people of Beni have totally lost confidence in UN MONUSCO.   KJ-2. It is highly likely that other threatened communities will begin to think in the direction of expressing their dissatisfaction violently if UN MONUSCO is not strengthened.   KJ-3. It is almost certain that hostility towards UN peacekeepers by people of threatened communities will increase       Analysis   The people of Beni, Nord-Kivu feel betrayed, and it is…

Egypt: A Challenging Future

January 21, 2020

Louis Tayler

    Key Judgements   Egypt has chronic problems that any government, even one with fewer corruption problems would struggle to solve easily.   As long as Sisi’s government is able to deliver regular economic development, and guarantee security, he will stay in power.   In the long term, the Renaissance Dam Project in Ethiopia threatens Egyptian water supply and stability.     Egypt is a country with a highly challenging set of conditions for any government. The Egypt inherited…

Algerian 2019 Elections: An Inconclusive Result

January 20, 2020

Louis Tayler

    Key Judgements     KJ-1. The outcome of the Algerian elections is far from settled, though the result was strong. The turnout is neither weak enough to dismiss the result, nor strong enough to give a good mandate to President-elect Tebboune to enact major changes.   KJ-2. President-elect Tebboune, with the support of the army, will likely stay in power, even if he has limited popular support.       Analysis   This report seeks to offer an assessment on…

Guinea: The Struggle Against Third Termism

January 20, 2020

Ana-Maria Baloi

    In Africa, a new political trend is arising. Many former colonies witnessed both democracy and authoritarian rule after gaining their independence. As for now, democratically elected heads of state seek to prolong their rule, by amending or even renewing the constitution. This wave of what critics call “third-termism” brings about increasing tensions across the African continent.       Guinea is one of Africa’s smallest countries and is located on the West Coast, opening its shores to the…

The Future of Central African Republic & Russia’s Attempt to Boost its Arms Sales

January 16, 2020

Jesutimilehin Akamo

    Key Judgements   KJ-1. It is highly likely that military alliance between the Russian Federation and CAR government will get cordial; if so   KJ-2. It is almost certain that the exclusion and marginalisation of the Séléka minority will worsen   KJ-3. The focus of the Russian Federation is arms trade; hence, there is a realistic probability that illegal arms trade to the rebel groups will increase in the coming years and Russia would be the supplier  …

Turkey and North Africa: An Intricate Network of Trade and Tension

January 15, 2020

Eren Ersozoglu

    In the Eastern Mediterranean, tensions are rising over maritime jurisdiction. This is not only bringing Turkey into an intensifying dispute with Greece, but also alarming officials in Cairo. An agreement with Libya declares a maritime boundary which would facilitate oil and gas exploration. This boundary is disputed by Greece, declaring a violation of Crete’s waters as well as contested territory surrounding Cyprus.   The escalation of events is in part enabled with Turkey’s increasingly closer ties with Africa,…