Africa is Becoming China’s China
January 11, 2020
Key Judgements KJ-1. Many African economies will become highly dependent on Chinese aids, such as loans, technological projects, infrastructure investments and weaponry. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will take advantage of the China-Africa Partnership to expand its influence across the continent. KJ-2. China will seek to improve its military cooperation with African states, taking a stronger stance in the conflicts affecting the continent. The political and social instability across Africa will allow China to…
Ras Lanuf: Can Haftar secure Libya’s Oil?
January 9, 2020
Libya’s security and political outlook is complex. Since the ousting of Gheddafi in October 2011, the country has been involved in a never-ending spiral of internal conflicts. A civil war erupted in 2014, and in October of the same year, ISIS-backed jihadist militias started their operations, carrying on a prolonged insurgency against the fragile Libyan institutions and business assets, including oil terminals. Since March 2016, when Al-Serraj UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) arrived in Tripoli, Libya has been going down the path of a possible…
Libya: Shifting Into a Stalemated Proxy War
January 8, 2020
Key Judgements KJ-1. Russia’s support for Haftar is based on the expectation that he will defeat the GNA and control Libya - backing a winner. KJ-2. Inability to take Tripoli since April has greatly damaged Haftar’s credibility among allies who backed him as the man who they thought would have taken Libya over by now. KJ-3. Haftar is in a strong position and may wish to make further gains to remove the GNA entirely, or…
Italy and Libya: A Risk of Rising Mediterranean Migration?
Dating from as far back as the colonial era, Italy and Libya have had a dysfunctional relationship marred by a legacy of domination, but also marked by lasting and close trade ties. Aside from trade, the most important recent area of cooperation has been controlling migration. In 2008, Italy agreed to pay Colonel Gaddafi $5bn to stop migrant boats from leaving Libya. Recent agreements build on this pattern of Italian support in exchange for control of migration, though…
East Africa Stability Forecast
January 6, 2020
Download Grey Dynamics’ East Africa Stability Forecast: East Africa Stability Forecast Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Grey Dynamics LTD.
Somali-Kenya relations cracked but not broken
January 2, 2020
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has postponed a hearing first raised by Somalia in 2014, over a Somalian-Kenyan maritime dispute concerning an approximately 100,000 square kilometre area in the Indian Ocean until June 8, 2020. Both countries lay claim to the area which is thought to be rich in oil and gas resources. This dispute had caused rising tensions between the two East African nations, with flights cancelled between Mogadishu and Nairobi, rejections of visas for Somalian MPs…