grey dynamics

Israel Swipe Right on Africa

April 26, 2019

Fredrik Hellem

      In 2016, Netanyahu stated that ‘Israel is coming back to Africa, and Africa is coming back to Israel’. In January 2019, Netanyahu and Chadian President Idriss Déby officially announced the resumption of diplomatic ties. In February, Israel opened its first embassy in Rwanda. Now, after the election in Israel, it is expected that Netanyahu will host Malian President Soumeylou Boubeye Maiga to restore and heighten diplomatic relations between the two. But why?         Israeli…

Cementing its presence in Africa
: Russia’ meddling in Madagascar’s elections

April 15, 2019

Dylan Ramshaw

  The 2018 presidential campaign in Madagascar was among the most closely fought in its post-independence history. Former president Andry Rajoelina was elected following a second round in late December. Since the election, Rajoelina has promoted closer ties with Russia, including strengthening military cooperation. This may come as no surprise after a BBC Africa investigationrevealed that at least six candidates were offered money by Russians. The interference in Madagascar’s elections is just the latest in a series of strategic covert…

Haftar’s Move on Tripoli
: Opportunity and Leverage

April 12, 2019

Fredrik Hellem

      In January, the Libyan National Army’s (LNA) commander Khalifa Haftar’s siege on the Fezzan in Libya put him in control of about two-thirds of the Libyan territory, vast energy infrastructure, and armed forces through forming of alliances. In my previous analysis of the situation, I asked if Haftar’s strong hand would prompt him to continue his ‘war on terrorism’ northwards towards Tripoli? Or, if he would pause and await the scheduled elections to take place? On the…

Will ‘Mauritanian Spartacus’ See an End to Slavery?

April 11, 2019

Fredrik Hellem

    While enjoying rapid economic growth in the 21stcentury, largely a product of fishing along its 700-kilometer long coastline and exploiting its abundance of minerals, most notably iron, copper, phosphate, and gold – Mauritania has failed to transform this growth into societal development, most importantly to end hereditary slavery. Meanwhile, the ‘Mauritanian Spartacus’ is preparing for the June presidential election.         Ethnic Divisions and Slavery   An estimated 25% of the population is Afro-Mauritians made up…

Gender Inequality & Human Trafficking in Mauritania

April 10, 2019

Fredrik Hellem

      The US Department of State has ranked Mauritania as a Tier 3 human trafficking country. Tier 1 is the most positive rating, Tier 3 the most negative – with the exception of four special cases. Mauritania is the only country in North and West Africa with a Tier 3 rating, which begs the question: Why is Mauritania worse off than its neighbours? One of the factors is its heritage of slavery, another is the commodification of women.…

Update: New Momentum in Sudan

April 9, 2019

Fredrik Hellem

    Peaceful protests in Sudan began on 19 December as a reaction to higher prices. Within a month, President Omar al-Bashir vowed to stay in power on January 9 despite the demand for his resignation by the protesters. When I offered my analysis of the situation in Sudan in early February I stated that Bashir will continue his reign, as regime change seemed close to impossible at the time. This was due to the lack of significant support externally from…