grey dynamics

Why Counter-Terrorism Won’t Stabilize the Sahel

April 6, 2019

Fredrik Hellem

  The vast area of the Sahel is increasingly believed to be the next battlefield in fighting global terrorism. The Sahel is struggling with several terrorist groups operating there, such as Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Boko Haram, Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), Ansaru-Islam, and two IS affiliates, Greater Sahara (ISGS) and West Africa Province (ISWAP). Particularly Lake Chad Basin, Mali, and Burkina Faso suffer from violent attacks. In trying to stabilize the region and increase the…

The Demographic Threat in the Central Sahel

April 2, 2019

Fredrik Hellem

    Countries in the Sahel are facing several threats, including widespread violence and radicalization. One equally important threat is the one posed by demographic factors which are likely to drive or increase violence and insecurity in the region in the future. Niger, Chad, Mali, and Burkina Faso will have to address this problem.       The Data   Niger has the highest fertility rate in the world at 7.2 births per woman over their lifetime. In comparison, the…

American Drone Strategy in Northern Africa

March 27, 2019

Fredrik Hellem

    In March 2019, President Trump signed an executive order (EO) revoking the provision that was set up under Obama’s presidency requiring the CIA to report the number of drone strikes and their impact outside war zones. That provision was a policy step towards handing the lead for drone operations over to the Pentagon which is required to report on such operations to Congress. Thus, bringing transparency to the sphere of drone strikes and in turn, increase oversight and…

Algeria’s Uniform Economy

March 25, 2019

Fredrik Hellem

      Algeria’s economic model emerged from the ‘black decade’ of civil war in the 1990s. The model relies heavily on hydrocarbons, as it did prior to the black decade, with 97% of total exports, two-thirds of state revenue, and one-third of GDP stemming from hydrocarbons in 2014. Prior to the civil war, the country’s dismal economic situation was a growing concern as the queues for overpriced and scarce food supplies grew as well as the unemployment rates. President…

Zimbabwe’s Calamity
: Promise of Change Foiled

March 19, 2019

Dylan Ramshaw

      In January, the people of Zimbabwe faced their worst government crackdown since the ousting of strongman Robert Mugabe. His replacement, Emmerson Mnangagwa, inherited a country in economic ruin and he has been unable to salvage a recovery. This is despite declaring Zimbabwe open for business. Frustration has built for months as the country again suffers from spiraling inflation, chronic shortages of foreign exchange, fuel, and medicine. After being installed by the military after the removal of Mugabe in…

Epidemic in Madagascar
: Measles and the ‘Black Death’ continue to ravage Madagascar

March 18, 2019

Dylan Ramshaw

      The last two years have been a public health catastrophe for Madagascar. Since October, nearly 1,000 people have died and over 66,000 have been infected from a measles outbreak. In 2017-18, the country was devastated with the plague, infecting nearly 2,000 people and killing over 200. The country experiences regular outbreaks, with an estimated 400 cases of plague each year. Experts described the outbreak of 2017-18 as the "worst outbreak in 50 years". However, the case of…