grey dynamics

Libya’s Faith at the Hands of Haftar

March 1, 2019

Fredrik Hellem

  Following the death of Gaddafi in 2011 Libya has been in turmoil. The country has been a victim of much violence resulting from local power struggles between factions attempting to establish themselves as the legitimate power over people, land, or resources in the vacuum that has haunted Libya for years. Yet, local militias and groupings are increasingly unifying and fighting under two banners – the east and the west. The international community and the UN have been active in…

A Failed Military Coup in Gabon
: A foiled plan or a sign of more to come?

February 27, 2019

Dylan Ramshaw

        After decades of political stability, the central African nation of Gabon, has entered a period of political flux after an attempted military coup on Jan 7th, 2018. Although, the uprising was quickly repressed, ithas raised questions about the current leadership. At the time, President Ali Bongo was recuperating in Morocco from a stroke, suffered while in Saudi Arabia in October, but has since returned to his home country.               The…

Better the Devil You Know Than the Devil You Don’t

February 20, 2019

Fredrik Hellem

    Omar al-Bashir has been in power in Sudan since the self-arranged coup d’etat in 1989. Since then he has been re-elected four times, latest in 2015. The results prompted allegations of both corruption and fraud. In 2009, Bashir was indicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for his campaign in Darfur in which war crimes such as mass killing, pillage, rape, and genocide. The indictment was condemned by both the Arab League and the African Union. Bashir was…

Sanctions and a Military Coup?
: Uncertainty and potential civil war in Venezuela

February 14, 2019

Dylan Ramshaw

  The confrontation on multiple fronts is ramping up in Venezuela with a peaceful solution more in doubt. Opposition protests to the Maduro government are becoming more frequent after Juan Guaidó, President of the National Assembly announced himself to be the legitimate president of the country. He also has received official support from the US, Canada, and most of the EU. There was an indication last week from National Security Advisor John Bolton that the US was considering the escalation…

Egypt and Israel’s Dirty Little Secret

February 7, 2019

Fredrik Hellem

  Just days into 2019 it was reported that Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi had been subject to an interview by the CBS television show 60 Minutes, an interview Egypt’s envoy to the US requested not to be broadcast shortly after it was conducted. The background for the request is quite simple; Firstly, al-Sisi answered sensitive questions about his regime’s methods in countering opposition; Secondly, al-Sisi confirmed an unprecedented level of cooperation with Israel – a cooperation which can both…

3 Cardinal Rules of Social Media Intelligence

February 5, 2019

Giovanni Coletta

  From a simple branch of Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) to an established independent discipline, Social Media Intelligence (SOCMINT) has risen to such a primary importance that no intelligence security company can reasonably disregard the information retrieved from social network platforms without missing portions of the desired intelligence picture. Whether it is Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn, Tumblr or any other minor platform, SOCMINT provides data, insights and alarm bells that fit the need for timeliness and that fast pace analysts…