grey dynamics

Operation Gladio: An Introduction

February 9, 2021

Michael Ellmer

    This Grey Dynamics article explores the creation myth of the anti-communist NATO-allied project known as Operation Gladio, and the context behind why it was created – to prevent the post-World War II spread of communism across Europe using clandestine proxy forces.     Communism. The red and yellow colored, hammer and sickle stamped, bourgeoisie smashing elephant in the room. Some violently hate it, others view it as the only true system of liberation. And then some, who live…

Troll-on-Troll: Russian-French Cyber Information War in Africa

February 5, 2021

Eren Ersozoglu

      Key Findings     December 2020. Facebook removes accounts / groups linked to individuals associated with the French military and Russian Internet Research Agency “troll farm”.     The operations focus on influencing public opinion in targeted African countries, such as the Central African Republic (CAR) and Mali. In CAR and countries with contested interest, the primary focus is displaying the adversary in a negative perspective, while displaying themselves positively.     Russian and French operations, in…

Line in The Sand: USAFRICOM Djibouti Base vs. Chinese Influence in Africa

January 20, 2021

Eren Ersozoglu

    Key Judgements     KJ-1. In Djibouti, Camp Lemonnier, the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) footprint not only supports the ongoing commitment against terrorism but serves as a strategic outpost for US interests in the region.   KJ-2. In contrast, China’s belt and road initiative places Djibouti as a key strategic point for projected economic trade expansion. Djibouti is also home to China’s first overseas military base - Chinese People's Liberation Army Support Base.   KJ-3. The ‘golden…

China vs Australia: Quad aka Asian NATO Revived as Hybrid War Intensifies

January 14, 2021

Eren Ersozoglu

     Key Judgements   Australia’s geopolitical stance and role in the Five Eyes (FVEY) intelligence alliance, comprising the US, UK, Canada, and New Zealand, places the nation at odds with Beijing. China’s intensified military modernisation and aggressive bid for hegemony via hybrid warfare in the region alarms Australian officials and key allies. This is supported by the revival of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad/Asian NATO) in 2017. The US, Japanese, Australian, and Indian security framework is seen as a…

COVID-19 & UN MONUSCO

January 13, 2021

Jeremy Walker

                      Key Judgements   KJ-1. Previous logistical chains created for reacting to the previous Ebola epidemic will likely mean MONUSCO has a realistic probability to deploy countermeasures that will not interfere in its current mission objectives.   KJ-2. MONUSCO has almost certainly failed in its mission of protecting civilians from violence before COVID-19 impacted the country.   KJ-3. MONUSCO almost certainly faces a tough upcoming 12 months. With budgetary concerns and a mistrusting…

Spain’s Overseas Territories in Morocco Disputed?

January 7, 2021

Iñigo Camilleri De Castanedo

  Political polarisation in Spain has led to divisive comments which likely disrupt the status quo in Ceuta and Melilla. Despite president El Othmani placing both regions under the spotlight following the confrontations in Western Sahara, tensions over their sovereignty status are unlikely to change the official status of Ceuta and Melilla belonging to Spain, as intentions are likely more symbolic than pragmatic. With the Moroccan ambassador summoned by Sanchez to clarify Morocco’s current position regarding sovereignty claims on Ceuta and…