grey dynamics

The Expanding Tentacles of the CJNG

October 15, 2020

Iñigo Camilleri De Castanedo

  Why Does This Matter   Colombia’s cocaine industry is of crucial importance to the drug-trafficking industry. The pandemic created a criminal vacuum in Colombia which criminal actors took advantage of, including the Jalisco Cartel (CJNG). Although there was a presence in Colombia pre-pandemic, relationships and violence appear to be growing significantly:   The CJNG is highly likely dependent on Colombia to maintain the economic structure of the cartel. There is a lack of alternatives in coca-producing states. This and…

The Proud Boys?

October 13, 2020

Michael Ellmer

Key Judgements   KJ-1. It is highly likely that the Proud Boys will become energized and experience increased membership because of the recent negative media attention the group received from partisan news outlets and journalists.   KJ-2. It is highly likely the Proud Boys will continue to be a counter element at political protests. Although the group does organize their own rallies, most of their activism is as an answer to adversarial groups like Antifa. It is almost certain that…

Libyan Civil War: Qatar Involvement

October 7, 2020

Ana-Maria Baloi

  This report examines Qatar’s interests in Libya and the reasoning of its financial support for the GNA. As the geopolitical context in the region remains volatile, the timing for prediction has been settled for six months. For collection and processing, the author used OSINT, therefore the report is safe to be further distributed.     Key Judgements   KJ-1. Qatar was a major sponsor state for militias fighting Gaddafi’s regime in the first Libyan civil war. It is likely…

A Long-running Fairy Tale Undercut in Somalia

October 6, 2020

Robert Dekker

Risk assessment concerning geopolitics and the Federal Republic of Somalia   But this fairy tale is again cruelly disrupted after the information was obtained and revealed from various sources and subsequently confirmed by at least three other independent sources within internationally actively involved stakeholders.   Especially now that the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), which operates as an active, regional peacekeeping mission under the banner of the African Union with the approval of the United Nations Security Council, will…

Libyan Civil War: Saudi Arabia & UAE Involvement

September 22, 2020

Michael Ellmer

Key Judgement KJ-1. It is almost certain the UAE and SA back the LNA fiscally and logistically within the Libyan Civil War, although the extent of their support is not public due to the secretive approach they have taken. KJ-2. There is a realistic probability that SA and UAE funding has set conditions with their support that have likely impeded any hopes for a diplomatic solution between the GNA and the LNA. KJ-3. It is almost certain that the instalment of an LNA…

The Great Game: Russian Influence in the Balkans

April 27, 2020

Louis Tayler

  The “Great Game” of power competition is once again afoot in the Balkans, where the US, NATO and the EU vie with Russia for influence. There is a good reason for this, however: recent Russian operations to gain influence or disrupt the EU have had limited successes elsewhere in Europe. Attempts to influence and threaten the Baltic nations have been limited by their whole-hearted participation in NATO, stable democratic systems, and relative lack of corruption.   In contrast, the…