grey dynamics

Impact of COVID-19 on the MINUSCA Mission

December 29, 2020

Javier Olaecha

  “There is likely to be similarities in how officials go about assessing the risk from a new virus and the threat from terror, based on limited information. What we are finding out about the virus  is that the science is far from black and white in this, we are learning new things about it all the time and will likely continue to do so for some while,” he said. “Even the main symptoms have not been fixed”. -Nigel Inkster,…

Russian Military Bases in Egypt

November 13, 2020

Iñigo Camilleri De Castanedo

  Key Judgements   KJ-1. The frequency and intensity of Russian activity in Egypt and Libya will likely increase in the following 12 months. The military base established is an asset to be protected, as it strengthens Russian legitimacy in the region. Ultimately, this would shadow the Chinese economic and infrastructure investment in the country and focus the spotlight on Russian public investments.   KJ-2. The capability of Russia to influence regional dynamics in the Sahel and the Middle East…

Why is Russia Building Military Bases in Sudan?

November 12, 2020

Jeremy Walker

  Key Judgements   KJ-1. Russia is seeking to take what it has learnt in Syria and extend its influence within Sudan and the East Africa region.   KJ-2. Russia is almost certainly planning to take advantage of a power vacuum in East Africa and create its own geopolitical sphere of influence.   KJ-3. Russias military will almost certainly benefit from a Red Sea naval base in Sudan.   KJ-4. Russia will almost certainly take advantage of Sudan's dire economic status and benefit…

How Ethiopia Reached the Brink of Civil War

November 10, 2020

Robert Dekker

  How Ethiopia Reached the Brink of Civil War.   Sudden reforms in the ethno-federal state system have drawn comparisons to the dissolution of Yugoslavia.   As the world waited with bated breath last Wednesday for the results of the U.S. presidential election, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed sent soldiers to the restive northern Tigray province, alleging that regional troops had attacked a federal military base. The crisis escalated quickly, and heavy casualties have been reported in clashes between the…

Russian Military Infrastructure in the Central African Republic

November 10, 2020

Michael Ellmer

  Key Judgements   KJ-1. It is highly likely that Russia will expand into Africa as part of their ultimate geopolitical goal of becoming a superpower on the world stage. The CAR is currently one of Russia’s close allies in the region and a location of recent military activity.     KJ-2. It is highly likely that Russia currently has a military presence in the CAR by using the Kremlin-backed private military organization known as the Wagner Group as their…

Russia’s Military Base in Mozambique: Intent, Impact & Impediment

November 9, 2020

Eren Ersozoglu

  This Grey Dynamics African Intelligence report analyses the potential establishment of a Russian military base in Mozambique. The geopolitical, economic, and military benefits and impact of a Russian base will be explored.     Key Judgments   KJ-1. Based on the leak from German intelligence and the existing close relationship between Russia and Mozambique, it is highly likely that Russia has been approved to establish a military base.   KJ-2. It is likely that Russia will make use of…