grey dynamics

A Long-running Fairy Tale Undercut in Somalia

October 6, 2020

Robert Dekker

Risk assessment concerning geopolitics and the Federal Republic of Somalia   But this fairy tale is again cruelly disrupted after the information was obtained and revealed from various sources and subsequently confirmed by at least three other independent sources within internationally actively involved stakeholders.   Especially now that the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), which operates as an active, regional peacekeeping mission under the banner of the African Union with the approval of the United Nations Security Council, will…

Libyan Civil War: Saudi Arabia & UAE Involvement

September 22, 2020

Michael Ellmer

Key Judgement KJ-1. It is almost certain the UAE and SA back the LNA fiscally and logistically within the Libyan Civil War, although the extent of their support is not public due to the secretive approach they have taken. KJ-2. There is a realistic probability that SA and UAE funding has set conditions with their support that have likely impeded any hopes for a diplomatic solution between the GNA and the LNA. KJ-3. It is almost certain that the instalment of an LNA…

The Great Game: Russian Influence in the Balkans

April 27, 2020

Louis Tayler

  The “Great Game” of power competition is once again afoot in the Balkans, where the US, NATO and the EU vie with Russia for influence. There is a good reason for this, however: recent Russian operations to gain influence or disrupt the EU have had limited successes elsewhere in Europe. Attempts to influence and threaten the Baltic nations have been limited by their whole-hearted participation in NATO, stable democratic systems, and relative lack of corruption.   In contrast, the…

Stabilising West Africa Through Football

April 20, 2020

Ana-Maria Baloi

  Why Does This Matter   Football can serve as a diplomatic means to enhance dialogue and cooperation, thus bringing about regional stability West African football clubs are widely popular across the continent; given the increasing turmoil affecting West Africa, football could play a greater role in facilitating cooperation among states Some African players have become very politically influential to the point of winning presidential elections — such as Liberian President George Weah     Overview   Football was introduced…

Luanda Leaks: Africa’s Richest Woman Under Fire

April 15, 2020

Jesutimilehin Akamo

  This article seeks to examine the corruption scandal and allegations against Africa’s richest woman, Isabel dos Santos, the former Chairperson of Sonangol. Her half-brother, José Filomeno dos Santos, also headed Angola’s sovereign wealth fund. They are both children of José Eduardo dos Santos, Angola’s former President. João Lourenço (JLo) took over from their father as President and sacked them. Afterwards, he charged them to court for corruption.   ‘Luanda Leaks’ was revealed by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists…

Libyan Civil War: Shifting Balance of Power

April 7, 2020

Louis Tayler

Key Judgements   The LNA and Haftar wish to tighten their grip on Tripoli, not only to end the civil war but to stop foreign equipment and support arriving. Turkey and the GNA are adapting to LNA counter-drone tactics and diversifying their operating locations. Erdogan wishes to create “a balance of power with the Haftar forces”, or a stalemate, which may then lead to negotiations.   Libya is in the midst of its second bloody Civil War, currently between the…