grey dynamics

Exploring Turkish Strategy in East Africa
: Building bridges or expansionism?

January 27, 2020

Eren Ersozoglu

    The “Africa Action Plan”, initiated Turkey’s intention to revive Turkey’s relations with Africa in 1998. A combination of the Istanbul Earthquake 1999, the economic crisis in 2000-2001, and failure to implement operational rather than theoretical and symbolic steps hindered any substantial progress.     The Justice Development Party (AKP), which came to power in 2002, brought this intent closer to reality:   In 2005, the AKP’s “Open to Africa Policy as introduced, in the same year the government…

Tensions Occur Between Ghana, Nigeria and China Over Retail Business

January 23, 2020

Ana-Maria Baloi

    Key Judgements   KJ-1. The economic relations between Ghana and Nigeria will worsen due to regional competition. While Ghana will advance its open-door policy for foreign investment and foreign workers, Nigeria is likely to lean on its long-term partner – China.   KJ-2. China will take advantage of the retail conflict between Ghana and Nigeria. The two West-African countries represent each other’s biggest trade partner. If relations between the two will become even more strained, China will step…

Why is Equatorial Guinea Fragile?

January 22, 2020

Jesutimilehin Akamo

    This article attempts to describe the situation in Equatorial Guinea. It describes the factors that makes it a fragile state. However, the focus on the medium and long term. The economic and political condition in Equatorial Guinea may be dynamic; however, it requires more attention especially with respect to conflict prevention.     Reconstructed Scenario is based on the following judgments:    It is almost certain that the economic and socio-political atmosphere of Equatorial Guinea makes it vulnerable to…

Depleting Trust: Threatened Communities and the Future of MONUSCO

January 21, 2020

Jesutimilehin Akamo

     Key Judgements   KJ-1. It is almost certain that the people of Beni have totally lost confidence in UN MONUSCO.   KJ-2. It is highly likely that other threatened communities will begin to think in the direction of expressing their dissatisfaction violently if UN MONUSCO is not strengthened.   KJ-3. It is almost certain that hostility towards UN peacekeepers by people of threatened communities will increase       Analysis   The people of Beni, Nord-Kivu feel betrayed, and it is…

Egypt: A Challenging Future

January 21, 2020

Louis Tayler

    Key Judgements   Egypt has chronic problems that any government, even one with fewer corruption problems would struggle to solve easily.   As long as Sisi’s government is able to deliver regular economic development, and guarantee security, he will stay in power.   In the long term, the Renaissance Dam Project in Ethiopia threatens Egyptian water supply and stability.     Egypt is a country with a highly challenging set of conditions for any government. The Egypt inherited…

Algerian 2019 Elections: An Inconclusive Result

January 20, 2020

Louis Tayler

    Key Judgements     KJ-1. The outcome of the Algerian elections is far from settled, though the result was strong. The turnout is neither weak enough to dismiss the result, nor strong enough to give a good mandate to President-elect Tebboune to enact major changes.   KJ-2. President-elect Tebboune, with the support of the army, will likely stay in power, even if he has limited popular support.       Analysis   This report seeks to offer an assessment on…