grey dynamics

The Ghost of Gaddafi Marginalises the African Union in Libya

March 6, 2020

Louis Tayler

    Key Judgements:   Gaddafi’s influence in the African Union (AU) has tainted it in the eyes of some Libyans, who perceive it to have been their enemy, or simply irrelevant to the revolution and future of Libya.   Libyan political and economic relationships are increasingly focused towards the Middle East, Europe, Russia and Turkey. Linkage to, and involvement with Africa is dropping.   Though the AU has little influence in Libya and the peace process, the implications of…

Lessons from a Home Grown Peace Plan by Awatche’s People in C.A.R

March 5, 2020

Jesutimilehin Akamo

    This article attempts to examine an aspect of drought’s impact. Pastureland and water are in short supply. This has increased the competition between herders who need it to feed their cattle and farmers who depend on it for survival. The competition sometimes results in armed conflict. The political crisis adds to the challenges. However, this article explores a more peaceful option showed in Awatche, Bambari, Central Africa Republic (CAR). They owned and protect their peace.   Reconstructed Scenario…

China and Japan compete over business expansion in Ivory Coast: who wins?

March 2, 2020

Ana-Maria Baloi

    Why does this matter:    Ivory Coast represents a regional hub for business and trade, with a fast-growing economy.   Both China and Japan seek to expand their economic and political influence outside the East Asia region. Ivory Coast enjoys a variety of investors, meaning that competition is high.   China’s projects in the West African country do not include local personnel. Ivory Coast risks becoming dependent on China’s billions-worth of investments.         Overview  …

President Tebboune: Quelling the Hirak Protests

February 27, 2020

Louis Tayler

    Key Judgements   Tebboune is trying to rid himself of the Hirak movement, and get on with governing Algeria in the wake of Bouteflika’s removal. Ending the Hirak movement is a key part of restoring stability, which is a requirement to secure foreign investment.   The demands of the Hirak movement, in combination with its mostly peaceful nature, make it very hard to deal with for the new government. Bulldozing them out with the military and police would…

‘The Dutch disease’ : Angola, DRC & Equatorial Guinea

February 26, 2020

Jesutimilehin Akamo

    This article attempts to economically explain the underperformance of Angola, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and Equatorial Guinea suffers. They focus on the extractive industries while neglecting other sectors. This proves unhealthy for economic growth, development, and the future of the country.     Reconstructed Scenario is based on the following judgments:      The economies of Angola, DRC and Equatorial Guinea are underperforming   underperformance is due to an overdependence on the extractive industry to the detriment…

New Perils for West African Security After the U.S Consider Troop Withdrawal

February 25, 2020

Ana-Maria Baloi

      Key Judgements   KJ-1. The USA is rethinking its strategic goals; thus, movements of troops are expected in 2020. The 2018 National Defense Strategy announced that US’s top strategic priority is China, meaning that its involvement in the fight against jihadism will gradually decrease.     KJ-2. The withdrawal is expected to highly affect regional stability. The vacuum of power will allow terrorist groups to advance their agenda, while the flow of refugees into Europe will peak.…