grey dynamics

Guinea: The Struggle Against Third Termism

January 20, 2020

Ana-Maria Baloi

    In Africa, a new political trend is arising. Many former colonies witnessed both democracy and authoritarian rule after gaining their independence. As for now, democratically elected heads of state seek to prolong their rule, by amending or even renewing the constitution. This wave of what critics call “third-termism” brings about increasing tensions across the African continent.       Guinea is one of Africa’s smallest countries and is located on the West Coast, opening its shores to the…

The Future of Central African Republic & Russia’s Attempt to Boost its Arms Sales

January 16, 2020

Jesutimilehin Akamo

    Key Judgements   KJ-1. It is highly likely that military alliance between the Russian Federation and CAR government will get cordial; if so   KJ-2. It is almost certain that the exclusion and marginalisation of the Séléka minority will worsen   KJ-3. The focus of the Russian Federation is arms trade; hence, there is a realistic probability that illegal arms trade to the rebel groups will increase in the coming years and Russia would be the supplier  …

Turkey and North Africa: An Intricate Network of Trade and Tension

January 15, 2020

Eren Ersozoglu

    In the Eastern Mediterranean, tensions are rising over maritime jurisdiction. This is not only bringing Turkey into an intensifying dispute with Greece, but also alarming officials in Cairo. An agreement with Libya declares a maritime boundary which would facilitate oil and gas exploration. This boundary is disputed by Greece, declaring a violation of Crete’s waters as well as contested territory surrounding Cyprus.   The escalation of events is in part enabled with Turkey’s increasingly closer ties with Africa,…

Africa is Becoming China’s China

January 11, 2020

Ana-Maria Baloi

        Key Judgements   KJ-1. Many African economies will become highly dependent on Chinese aids, such as loans, technological projects, infrastructure investments and weaponry. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will take advantage of the China-Africa Partnership to expand its influence across the continent.    KJ-2. China will seek to improve its military cooperation with African states, taking a stronger stance in the conflicts affecting the continent. The political and social instability across Africa will allow China to…

Ras Lanuf: Can Haftar secure Libya’s Oil?

January 9, 2020

Mirko Giordani

    Libya’s security and political outlook is complex. Since the ousting of Gheddafi in October 2011, the country has been involved in a never-ending spiral of internal conflicts. A civil war erupted in 2014, and in October of the same year, ISIS-backed jihadist militias started their operations, carrying on a prolonged insurgency against the fragile Libyan institutions and business assets, including oil terminals. Since March 2016, when Al-Serraj UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) arrived in Tripoli, Libya has been going down the path of a possible…

Libya: Shifting Into a Stalemated Proxy War

January 8, 2020

Louis Tayler

    Key Judgements   KJ-1. Russia’s support for Haftar is based on the expectation that he will defeat the GNA and control Libya - backing a winner.   KJ-2. Inability to take Tripoli since April has greatly damaged Haftar’s credibility among allies who backed him as the man who they thought would have taken Libya over by now.   KJ-3. Haftar is in a strong position and may wish to make further gains to remove the GNA entirely, or…