How Will Namibia Fare After the Death of Its President? A 6 Month Forecast

On 4 February, Namibian President Hage Geingob passed away following a battle with cancer. Subsequently, former Vice President and now acting Interim President Nangolo Mbumba will continue Geingob’s administration until the general elections in November. During Mbumba’s swearing in ceremony, he stated he would not run for President in November. Instead, he will finish Geingob’s mandate and endorse South West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO)’s candidate Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah. Since Namibia gained independence in 1990, SWAPO has remained in government. However, Geingob’s administration has in recent years faced waning popularity and SWAPO face accusations of corruption. Despite this, Namibia is growing economically, with energy projects and fossil fuel discoveries increasing over the past year. 

Key Judgement 1: The SWAPO party is likely to win the 2024 November elections given the level of domestic stability following President Geingob’s death.

Key Judgement 2: Nangolo Mbumba and Presidential candidate Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah will likely cooperate to consolidate party stability before the election.

Key Judgement 3: Energy development in fossil fuels and renewable energy is likely to expand in the next 6 months due to ongoing projects and new discoveries.

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