Competition in the Arctic creates economic opportunities and security challenges for Iceland. While the risk of direct conflict is low, Iceland’s Arctic security strategy focuses on collaboration with NATO allies on security issues in the coming year. Iceland is also one of the most environmentally conscious Arctic Council states and foresees potential threats to its ecosystems. Iceland’s policies in the year will determine if the small nation can capture the benefits of Arctic cooperation without sacrificing its security and environmental health.

Key Judgement 1. Iceland’s Arctic security policy will likely emphasize sustaining strategic positioning in the GIUK gap and enhancing military collaborations with NATO allies. 

Key Judgement 2. Iceland is highly likely to advocate for new sustainability and conservation measures in the Arctic to protect undisturbed ecosystems within the next twelve months.

Key Judgement 3. Iceland’s government and energy sector representatives will likely advocate for geothermal energy solutions in future Arctic development.