India has repeatedly failed to condemn Russia’s war of aggression. First, because Russia plays a strategic role in India’s defence. Second, Russia is a key actor in defending the interests of India in the Kashmir conflict.
KJ-1 It is highly unlikely that India will condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in the next 6 months.
- On February 26 India was the only of three countries, and the only democracy, to abstain in the UN Security Council on the resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Moreover, on March 2 India abstained from voting against Russia in the UN General Assembly. Two days later, India failed once again to condemn Russia in the UN Human Rights Council. [source]
- India seems to have good reasons for not condemning Russia’s actions. Half of India’s arms imports come from Russia, including submarines, T-90 battle tanks, Su-30 fighter aircrafts and surface-to-air missile system known as s-400. Moreover, around 70-80% of India’s existing arsenal is Russian-made. Therefore, India needs to import from Russia ammunitions and spare parts. [source]
- India’s prime minister Modi signed with Putin a conspicuous number of trade and arms deals. For instance, one of these agreements include a 10-years military and technical cooperation programme in which India will produce half a million Kalashnikov assault rifles. [source]
KJ-2 It is highly likely that Russia and India will continue to be close partners despite Putin’s war of aggression in the following 6 months.
- Over the decades Russia has been a strategic partner to India, especially with regard to Kashmir. In the UN Security Council resolutions in 1957, 1962 and 1971, Russia was the only country which vetoed resolutions seeking UN interventions in Kashmir. [source]
- Moreover, Russia continues to defend the view that the conflict between India and Pakistan over Kashmir is only a bilateral matter. Therefore, it is highly likely that it will continue to veto possible resolutions in the UN Council, that try to internationalize the matter. This is of outstanding importance for India’s interests. [source]
- Moreover, Modi’s core support base is in favor of India’s neutrality and to maintain the strategic relationship with Russia. In addition, there is no opposition party that is demanding Modi to join the West in condemning and isolating Russia. [source]
KJ-3 It is highly unlikely that there will be any serious consequences for India’s failure to condemn Russia in the upcoming 6 months.
- India is part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. This group is composed of India, US, Australia and Japan. The group was created in 2004 as a forum to increase maritime cooperation after the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004. [source]
- However, the cooperation between the four countries has evolved to including security and economic ties as tensions with China have increased. Leaders of all four countries have become more aligned in their concerns about China’s increasingly assertive behaviour in the Indo-pacific region. [source]