Background

The formation of a new Caucasus-based independence movement called Ğalğay Kortamuq̇alen Eskar (ILA) emerged in April 2023. It operates as the armed wing of the Ingush Independence Committee (Ğalğay Komitet or Komitet Ingushskoj Nezavisimosti, KIN), also known as the Ingush Liberation Army (ILA). it desires to free the Ingush people in the Caucasus from control by the Russian Federation. With Russia struggling with the invasion of Ukraine the emergence of a new Caucasus-based liberation movement has the potential to undermine Russian control of its constituent federations.

Key Judgement 1. It is highly likely that governments and independence movements opposed to Russia will recognise the Ingush Liberation Army’s cause in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 2. It is highly likely that the Ingush Liberation Army will commit more attacks against Russian law enforcement in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 3. It is highly likely that the Ingush Independence Committee will develop connections with other anti-Russian groups in the next 12 months.