Iran-Taliban relations have seen mutual calls for engaging with Israeli forces. This would occur not only in Gaza and Israel but has also seen discussions over Taliban forces being sent to Lebanon. Israeli strikes in Southern Lebanon have been carried out in order to warn against potential Iranian involvement through its proxy militias in the current conflict in Gaza and Israel. Iran-Taliban governmental relations have also seen an improvement and have been marked with calls for cooperation in several areas, namely in opposition to Israel.
Key Judgment 1. It is highly likely that the current state of Iran-Taliban relations will lead to the Taliban providing support to anti-Israel groups.
Key Judgment 2. It is highly likely that Iran and the Taliban will unite over opposition to Israel.
Key Judgment 3. It is highly likely that Israel will strike Iranian proxies in Lebanon in order to warn against further antagonism.
KJ-1. It is highly likely that Iran-Taliban relations will lead to the Taliban providing support to Iranian backed anti-Israel groups.
- On 22 June 2024, Dr Hudhayfah Abdullah Azzam, son of Shiekh Abdullah Azzam, stated that Afghan Taliban officials were ready to “support the fighting fronts in Palestine and Lebanon”. [Source]
- The Israel Army Radio reported that the Taliban assured Iran that it would send fighters to support Hezbollah in the event of war breaking out. [Source]
- On October 9 2023, the Taliban denied claims that they were trying to join Hamas in fighting against Israel in Gaza. [Source]
- House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul warned that the Taliban and Iranian proxy group Hezbollah may join the current war in Gaza. [Source]
KJ-2. It is highly likely that Iran and the Taliban will unite over opposition to Israel.
- The foreign ministers of both Iran and the Taliban met in Tehran and discussed taking “joint action” against Israel. [Source]
- On 22 December 2023, the Taliban foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, entered Iran in order to participate in a “consultative and political” meeting about Palestine. [Source]
- Iranian officials stated that they had caught three “Israeli spies” during a joint operation with the Taliban. [Source]
- In November 2023, the Iranian Foreign Minister and the Taliban acting Deputy Prime Minister met in Tehran. [Source]
KJ-3. It is highly likely that Israel will strike Iranian proxies in Lebanon in order to warn against further antagonism.
- Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant stated that Israel was willing to “take any action required in Lebanon”. [Source]
- An Israeli air strike in Tyre, Southern Lebanon, led to the death of a Senior Hezbollah field commander. [Source]
- Hezbollah launched more than 200 rockets into Israel to avenge the senior field commander killed in an Israeli air strike. [Source]
- The mayor of the Israel-Lebanon border town, Kiryat Shmona, stated that the choice of war between Israel and Hezbollah was “now or later”. [Source]
Analytical Summary
We have high confidence that improving Iran-Taliban relations will lead to further coordination and cooperation regarding anti-Israel activities. This assessment is based on news reports and additionally on statements by government ministers and representatives. We assume that if Israel is able to effectively deter Iranian proxy militias by striking targets in Southern Lebanon, then we would expect to see the Taliban deterred from transferring forces in order to support Hezbollah operations. If this assumption were incorrect we would expect to see Taliban fighters appearing in Lebanon and nearby countries in order to support Iranian proxy militias in a conflict against Israel. We considered the alternative that Iran-Taliban relations would decrease but rejected this due to an increase in meetings between representatives of the two countries. More insight into Iran-Taliban talks and Israeli operations against proxy militia groups in Lebanon would improve future assessments of this conflict.
Intelligence Cut-off Date: 6 July 2024
