Iranian Influence in Western Sahara?

Iranian influence in Western Sahara is now conspicuous in the wake of the Israel-Hamas conflict. The Western Saharan conflict has been the principal cause of instability and regional rivalry in the Maghreb ever since Morocco and Mauritania reclaimed their ‘Saharan provinces’ in 1975. Despite UN pressure, the indigenous Sahrawi population had not been consulted over the transition of their territory. Algeria was quick to adopt their cause by backing the Polisario Front, the Sahrawis’ national liberation movement. Keen to subvert Morocco, a moderately Sunni state, Iran’s actions will impact the course of the dispute in the near term. 

Key Judgement 1: Iran and its partners will likely supply arms, drones, and training to Polisario Front militants in the near term.

Key Judgement 2: The Iranian regime will likely seek to downplay its role in Western Sahara ahead of its legislative elections in March.

Key Judgement 3: Escalation of the Israeli offensive in Gaza will likely provoke deeper engagement between Iranian proxies and the Polisario Front.

Rest of this post is for paying members only

Already have an account?  Log in

Free Plan
Free
Secret Plan
$14.99
/ month
Recommended
Top Secret Plan
$39.99
/ month
Free Plan
Free
Secret Plan
$14.99
/ month
Recommended
Top Secret Plan
$39.99
/ month
Table of Contents

Related Content

Taiwan and Legislative Contempt: A Situational Assessment

Location:_ Far East

A New North Korea-Russia Alliance

Location:_ Eurasia, Far East

Indo-Qatari Relations: A Spy Scandal in Qatar

Location:_ MENA

Russian Warheads in Cuba: “Cuban Missile Crisis” Part II?

Location:_ Latin America, Europe

German Counter-Intelligence: A 12-Month Outlook

Location:_ Europe

Taiwan Under Siege: 
The Chinese Cyber Threat

Location:_ Far East

Stay in the loop

Get a free weekly email that makes reading intel articles and reports actually enjoyable.

Log in

Stay in the loop

Get a free weekly email that makes reading Intelligence Reports and Articles actually enjoyable.

Table of Contents

Contact

Contact

"*" indicates required fields

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.