The Islamic State (IS) established ties with the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) in 2018 and now the ADF is commonly referred to as ISIS-Central Africa (source). Significantly, the ADF began as a Ugandan rebel group fighting against the Yoweri Museveni administration (source). In 2019, IS began claiming responsibility for attacks perpetrated by ADF through Telegram channels and the IS newsletter (source). IS primarily perpetrates attacks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), where the ADF is heavily involved (source).

Key Judgement 1: In the next 24 months, it is likely that the focus of IS attacks in Central Africa will be in the DRC where IS-affiliate ADF operates.

Key Judgement 2: It is probable that the U.S. will target counterterrorism efforts against IS leadership in Central Africa in the next 24 months.

Key Judgement 3: It is unlikely that Uganda will face a substantial increase in IS violence in the next 24 months.