On 3 January 2024, Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISKP) conducted an attack in the Iranian city of Kerman that killed more than 90 people. However, the group’s ambitions are broader than Iran’s. The historic Khorasan province, which the branch ostensibly sees to control, comprises North-eastern Iran, southern Turkmenistan and northern Afghanistan. ISKP (Islamic State – Khorasan Province) seeks to destabilise the Taliban government in Afghanistan and to create a similar Islamic ‘state’ as in Syria. The group launch significant attacks against Taliban authorities and civilian targets as well as in Pakistan. While Taliban authorities seek to combat the group, ISKP activity in the next 12 months only appears to be growing. [source]

Key Judgement 1. – It is likely that ISKP will escalate operations against the Taliban government in Afghanistan in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 2. – It is likely that ISKP will expand its influence into Central Asia and plan attacks outside the region in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 3. – It is likely that Taliban authorities will increase security measures against ISKP for the next 12 months.