The Islamic State Mozambique Province (ISMP) appears poised to extend its influence southwards. This is evident from recent missionary activities and attacks in northern Mozambique. Specifically, these efforts have included preaching tours and violent assaults on Christian villages, indicating a deliberate strategy to expand their presence. The Mozambican army’s ability to defend itself without support from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) mission in Mozambique is uncertain, as evidenced by recent clashes with militants and the ongoing withdrawal of regional assistance. Consequently, without effective intervention, the situation in Mozambique risks spiraling into deeper chaos and instability, with religious communities bearing the brunt of the violence.

Key Judgement 1. It’s likely that ISMP may look to extend their influence in the province of Cabo Delgado and in the provinces of Mocimboa da Praia.

Key Judgement 2. It’s likely that Christian regions may respond to the threat by arming themselves, potentially leading to retaliatory violence.

Key Judgement 3. It’s likely that the Mozambican army would not be able to defend itself without the SADC Mission in Mozambique.