Islamic State’s Central African Province (ISCAP): Threat Assessment

The Islamic State’s Central Africa Province (ISCAP), formerly known as the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), is a potent and ideologically committed jihadist group operating primarily in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Uganda. Despite its isolated beginnings and the region’s small Muslim population, ISCAP has adapted its recruitment and indoctrination strategies while maintaining alignment with the Islamic State’s objectives. Interviews with former members reveal a clear and consistent ideological framework emphasizing global Islamic conquest, underpinning its violent campaigns. The group, though reduced in size due to regional military pressures, remains resilient and effective, posing a significant threat in eastern Africa. Understanding ISCAP’s ideological transformation and operational strategies is crucial for addressing its ongoing insurgency.

Key Judgment 1. The joint Ugandan-Congolese military campaign, Operation Shujaa, has likely weakened ISCAP’s power in the region.

Key Judgment 2. ISCAP is highly likely to continue contributing to regional instability and possibly expand to other parts of the region. 

Key Judgment 3. IS is likely to leverage its regional network to bolster its global network, compensate for its weakening in other areas, and recruit additional fighters.

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