On 7 February, U.S. Central Command executed a targeted strike in Iraq, eliminating a Kata’ib Hezbollah commander responsible for orchestrating attacks on U.S. forces. The strike came in response to a 28 January attack against  US forces stationed in  Jordan  that resulted in three U.S. soldiers’ deaths and injuries to 47 others.  Kata’ib Hezbollah, a key player within the Popular Mobilization Forces and closely tied to Iran, was implicated in the assault. In response, The strikes underscore the escalating tensions in the Middle East and highlights the importance of understanding Kata’ib Hezbollah’s role in regional dynamics.

Key Judgement 1. It is likely that the US will prioritise retaliatory strikes against Iran backed groups to avoid direct confrontation with Iran.

Key Judgement 2. It’s likely that the US will target the “Nujaba Movement” next due to their threats against US facilities.

Key Judgement 3. The US will likely prioritise strikes against the Houthis in Yemen over attacks in Iraq and Syria in the near term.