The Kuril Islands are a disputed territory between Russia and Japan. Originally colonised by the Japanese beginning in the mid-19th century, in 1945, the Soviet Union invaded and evicted 17,000 Japanese residents [source]. Since a 1956 treaty to restore diplomatic relations, Japan has looked enviously to the north, wishing to reclaim its lost territory [source][source]. In the next 12 months, tensions will likely rise because of international events. However, hostile action is extremely unlikely, and the dispute is unlikely to see any notable developments.